KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1567.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
- August Gold dropped lower on Monday after losing more than 20 points during the session before regaining some footing to close in the upper 75% of the day’s range.
- With gold having now violated last week’s low of $1,567.20, any additional movement lower could signal fresh selling and take a shot at new lows for the month.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/2012 @ 1.2302. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2003.
- VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 1.2076. Downside Target 85% achieved.
- The September Euro FX traded to new two year lows on Monday after falling through our longstanding IT downside objective of 1.2097.
- The euro was able to pick up some late day gains but this market should continue to struggle as Spain is now looking like it may require not just a banking sector bailout but help with sovereign debt issues that may loom.
- Projected Daily Range: .0105
- Projected Weekly Range: .0256
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1356.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 1343.75. Downside Targets = 1315.50 – 1303.25
- The September S&P’s outperformed expectations for Monday as it dropped sharply lower as London came onboard in overnight trading as it was down nearly 2% in early trading.
- With the S&P’s being severely oversold on a daily level, they should take a shot at 1348 before falling lower towards 1327.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 105.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 103.26. Downside Target = 100.92.
- September Brent Crude dropped sharply lower on Monday as projected in this weekend’s report as Spanish sovereign debt fears blanketed the market as nearly all of last week’s gains were erased.
- After being severely oversold into intraday support, look for Brent to make a small move higher in early trading on Tuesday before falling below $102.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.17
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 90.15. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 88.14. Downside Targets = 86.70 – 85.39.
- September WTI Crude followed along with Brent to begin the new week as the broader risk markets sank lower and WTI saw its biggest one day loss in nearly two months.
- Look for a mild pop higher on Tuesday morning before selling off lower to just above the $85 mark.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.84
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.921. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.973. Upside Targets = 2.174 – 3.288
- September Natural Gas extended its gains on Monday after recovering from an overnight battering as it settled at its highest active contract price of 2012.
- After closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band for the previous two session, look for Natural Gas to reign in some gains on Tuesday before continuing higher towards $3.174 – $3.247.
- Projected Daily Range: .124
- Projected Weekly Range: .298
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
