Gold in danger of making fresh monthly lows

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 07/24/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1567.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
  • August Gold dropped lower on Monday after losing more than 20 points during the session before regaining some footing to close in the upper 75% of the day’s range.
  • With gold having now violated last week’s low of $1,567.20, any additional movement lower could signal fresh selling and take a shot at new lows for the month.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/2012 @ 1.2302. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2003.
  • VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 1.2076. Downside Target 85% achieved.
  • The September Euro FX traded to new two year lows on Monday after falling through our longstanding IT downside objective of 1.2097.
  • The euro was able to pick up some late day gains but this market should continue to struggle as Spain is now looking like it may require not just a banking sector bailout but help with sovereign debt issues that may loom.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0105
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0256
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/23/12 @ 1356.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/23/12 @ 1343.75. Downside Targets = 1315.50 – 1303.25
  • The September S&P’s outperformed expectations for Monday as it dropped sharply lower as London came onboard in overnight trading as it was down nearly 2% in early trading.
  • With the S&P’s being severely oversold on a daily level, they should take a shot at 1348 before falling lower towards 1327.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

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