Revelations in crude oil

Market Pulse: July 23

COT Data

Could something be happening with “big money” that is helping push up crude? You better believe it. Looking at the disaggregated COT report, take a good look at Swap Dealers. For one thing, look back to when they first entered net short territory. Look what has happened since. They have become strong hedgers in crude. Just look at Producers liquidating net shorts and Swap Dealers adding to net shorts. Pretty amazing isn’t it.

Most recently, back on June 29 Swap Dealers were net short -74,353 contracts and as of this past week they are now net short -108,773 contracts. Producers, the other hedgers, were net short -47,521 contracts on June 29 and as of this past Friday are net short -57,403. So, who is now the heavy hedger in crude?

On the buy side Managed Money was net long 99,765 contracts on June 29 and is now net long 115,229 contracts. Surprisingly “Other Reportables” were net long 13,068 contracts on June 29 and are now 57,550 contracts net long. So over the past month we have seen increased buying and selling by “big money.” And what do you see happening to crude prices? 

If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...

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