KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 105.27. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 105.27 or lower.
- September Brent Crude followed parallel to last Friday’s report as it settled back for some profit taking going into the weekend after its seventh straight day of gains.
- With economic news rotating back to European troubles, crude oil should struggle to log any sizable gains even amongst growing Middle East tensions.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.46
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/13/12 @ 86.88. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/13/12 @ 87.50. Upside Targets = 90.53 – 91.32.
- Inside compression day on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 90.15. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 90.15 or lower.
- September WTI Crude fell a bit lower on Friday after logging its best 7-day winning streak in many months but was able to settle just below the day’s mid-range as it steadily found support below $91.
- WTI may break a shade lower toward $90 in trading on Monday as broader risk markets continue to feel the pressure from Europe.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.921. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.973. Upside Targets = 2.174 – 3.288
- September Natural Gas closed above $3 for the first time in more than six months on Friday as excessive heat waves across the country continue to drive prices higher.
- Based on current market price action, natural gas should not only trade higher to our Short Term target of 3.174, but onward to 3.288 by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: .157
- Projected Weekly Range: .298
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1596.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
- Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1567.10.
- August Gold closed higher on Friday for the second consecutive day in another thin week of trading as this market continues to consolidate in a sideways trading pattern over the last two months.
- Given the extreme level of low volatility over the past 3 weeks, look for gold to see an increase in volatility on Monday.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.40
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/20/2012 @ 1.2170. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/20/2012 @ 1.2168. Downside Target = 1.2003.
- The September Euro FX dropped sharply lower on Friday after a nearly week-long labored rally fizzled due to renewed worries over Spain’s financial health as it hit record lows against many other currencies.
- Look for the Euro to tumble lower throughout this week as the debt crisis throughout Europe comes back into focus and drags it to our Intermediate Term downside objective that we have posted for months @ 1.2097.
- Projected Daily Range: .0110
- Projected Weekly Range: .0256
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1353.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/17/12 @ 1358.50 Upside Targets = 1378.50 – 1393.25.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1556.75. Possible Conservative confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1556.75 or lower.
- The September S&P’s followed through on last Thursday evenings report as it broke sharply lower on Friday to give back nearly 80% of the week’s gains.
- As there is typically a high correlation between the varying “risk” markets, the S&P’s could see a modest decline to begin the week on Monday dependent upon domestic earnings reports.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
