Natural gas targets $3.288 by week’s end on heat

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 07/23/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 105.27. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 105.27 or lower.
  • September Brent Crude followed parallel to last Friday’s report as it settled back for some profit taking going into the weekend after its seventh straight day of gains.
  • With economic news rotating back to European troubles, crude oil should struggle to log any sizable gains even amongst growing Middle East tensions.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.46
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/13/12 @ 86.88. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/13/12 @ 87.50. Upside Targets = 90.53 – 91.32.
  • Inside compression day on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 90.15. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 90.15 or lower.
  • September WTI Crude fell a bit lower on Friday after logging its best 7-day winning streak in many months but was able to settle just below the day’s mid-range as it steadily found support below $91.
  • WTI may break a shade lower toward $90 in trading on Monday as broader risk markets continue to feel the pressure from Europe.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.08
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.921. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.973. Upside Targets = 2.174 – 3.288
  • September Natural Gas closed above $3 for the first time in more than six months on Friday as excessive heat waves across the country continue to drive prices higher.
  • Based on current market price action, natural gas should not only trade higher to our Short Term target of 3.174, but onward to 3.288 by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: .157
  • Projected Weekly Range: .298
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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