KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
- September Brent Crude moved to fresh 2 month highs on Thursday after trading 1 tick through our weekly upside target listed in Thursday’s morning report.
- Brent should see a modest setback on Friday as some profit taking comes into the market after closing just inside the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.42
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/13/12 @ 86.88. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/13/12 @ 87.50. Upside Targets = 90.53 – 91.32.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 93.25. Upside Objectives 125% achieved.
- September WTI Crude followed Brent higher on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East continue to mount with the Israeli PM accusing Iran of plotting the terrorist attack against Israeli tourist.
- After logging its seventh consecutive winning day, WTI may settle back toward $90 on Friday before resuming its upward push to our Q3 objective of $95.53.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.18
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/12 @ 2921. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.973. Upside Targets = 3.103 – 3.288.
- August Natural Gas cracked through $3 for only the third time in the last four months on Thursday and failed to close above this threshold by a single tick before generating new highs for the week after the pit session close.
- Although much of the northeast was cooled off by some much needed rain, Thursday’s price action dictates that this market should continue onward toward our upside objectives before seeing any additional corrections.
- Projected Daily Range: .160
- Projected Weekly Range: .284
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1596.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
- August Gold moved higher on Thursday as the broader risk markets advanced but remained within the tight trading range it has been unable to break free of over the past three weeks.
- Gold has consolidated into its most thin trading range over the last three weeks than at any other point in the past year and should lead to an explosive move higher within the next few weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/2012 @ 1.2302. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Upside Target = 1.2412.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2302 or higher.
- The September Euro FX continued to trade within the same overlapping trading range on Thursday as it has over the past 9 trading sessions, closing below 1.23 for the 8th consecutive day.
- The euro should remain relatively quiet going into the weekend, possibly generating its second consecutive VRCB week as the market primes itself for a likely short-term rally. However, this market could easily resume it’s downward price action below the 1.2000 level.
- Projected Daily Range: .0107
- Projected Weekly Range: .0290
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1353.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/17/12 @ 1358.50 Upside Targets = 1378.50 – 1393.25.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1375.50. STR3MO 78% achieved.
- The September S&P’s were able to squeak out a modest gain on Thursday in another quiet session as earnings led the way despite another poor jobs report.
- The S&P’s should react in collusion with the rest of the risk markets on Friday after a very solid week could lead to a round of profit taking and close back towards 1361.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
