KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1596.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
- Possible Standard confirmation of a top @ 1567.10.
- August Gold dropped lower on Wednesday as expected, with demand for the precious metal slipping and technical stagnation of the market keeping a lid on the upside below $1,600.
- Based on Wednesday’s confirmed bearish price action, this market should continue down to the weekly objective of $1,546.40 by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/2012 @ 1.2302. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Upside Target = 1.2412 – 1.2472.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2302 or higher.
- The September Euro FX dropped sharply in early morning trading on Tuesday as chairman Bernanke’s statement to the US Senate Banking Committee sent FX currencies for a spill while boosting the USD on his bleak economic outlook.
- The Euro was, however, able to rally back throughout the afternoon session to regain its earlier losses to post its third straight gain as it looks to continue its upward momentum to our upside target of 1.2412.
- Projected Daily Range: .0114
- Projected Weekly Range: .0290
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1353.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/17/12 @ 1358.50 Upside Targets = 1378.50 – 1393.25.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1370.50. Upside Target 70% achieved.
- The September S&Ps advanced for the second consecutive day on Wednesday on a better than expected housing starts report as well as a more optimistic Beige Book filing.
- The S&P’s should trade to a minimum of 1381.50 this week on its way towards the upside target of 1393.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 105.60.
- September Brent Crude traded to its highest level since late May on Wednesday as a smaller than expected draw in crude inventories help fuel the market higher.
- As Brent closed above $105 for the first time since May 29, this market could continue to advance higher this week to the weekly target of 108.17.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/03/12 @ 86.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/13/12 @ 87.10. Upside Targets = 90.53 – 91.32.
- DOUBLE VRCB generated on Wednesday making new highs on current move @ 90.36. Upside Target 90% achieved.
- September WTI Crude closed above $90 on Wednesday as it logged its sixth consecutive day of gains despite relatively thin trading.
- With WTI trading to within $1 of the current upside target and closing so strongly, look for it to continue onward through the initial objectives and to the extended target of $92.77.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.84
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.921. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/18/12 @ 2.973. Upside Targets = 3.288.
- August Natural Gas exploded higher in on Wednesday in part due to HFT but remained at elevated levels throughout the session to close at its highest level since the second week of January.
- As natural gas once again challenges the daily RBB (Resistance Bollinger Band), look for tomorrow’s storage report to finally either push this market back above $3 on a closing level or drop back into the consolidation level it has bounced around in for the last two weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .136
- Projected Weekly Range: .284
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
