Gold falls on slipping demand, S&P 500 looking at 1393

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 07/19/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1596.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
  • Possible Standard confirmation of a top @ 1567.10.
  • August Gold dropped lower on Wednesday as expected, with demand for the precious metal slipping and technical stagnation of the market keeping a lid on the upside below $1,600.
  • Based on Wednesday’s confirmed bearish price action, this market should continue down to the weekly objective of $1,546.40 by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 21.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/2012 @ 1.2302. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Upside Target = 1.2412 – 1.2472.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2302 or higher.
  • The September Euro FX dropped sharply in early morning trading on Tuesday as chairman Bernanke’s statement to the US Senate Banking Committee sent FX currencies for a spill while boosting the USD on his bleak economic outlook.
  • The Euro was, however, able to rally back throughout the afternoon session to regain its earlier losses to post its third straight gain as it looks to continue its upward momentum to our upside target of 1.2412.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0114
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0290
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1353.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/17/12 @ 1358.50 Upside Targets = 1378.50 – 1393.25.
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1370.50. Upside Target 70% achieved.
  • The September S&Ps advanced for the second consecutive day on Wednesday on a better than expected housing starts report as well as a more optimistic Beige Book filing.
  • The S&P’s should trade to a minimum of 1381.50 this week on its way towards the upside target of 1393.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

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