KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1596.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1596.60 or higher.
- August Gold was in for another erratic trading session on Tuesday as it whipsawed traders around before failing to break $1,600/oz. and last traded below the day’s mid-range.
- If Tuesday’s low of $1,571.00 is violated, Gold could drop lower throughout the rest of this week’s trading and fall to at least $1,551.20 or else generate its third weekly VRCB.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/2012 @ 1.2302. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Upside Target = 1.2412.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2302 or higher.
- The September Euro FX dropped sharply in early morning trading on Tuesday as chairman Bernanke’s statement to the US Senate Banking Committee sent FX currencies for a spill while boosting the USD on his bleak economic outlook.
- The euro was, however, able to rally back throughout the afternoon session to regain its earlier losses to post its third straight gain as it looks to continue its upward momentum to our upside target.
- Projected Daily Range: .0114
- Projected Weekly Range: .0290
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1353.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/17/12 @ 1358.50 Upside Targets = 1378.50 – 1393.25.
- The September S&P’s were in for a very volatile trading session on Tuesday as Fed chairman Bernanke’s comments on the economy first had the markets in a serious decline but rebounded through the session for another solid gain and breaking through last week’s high.
- The S&Ps should now retest July’s high @ 1375 this week before going after our upside target of 1393.25 and meeting heavy resistance as it nears 1400.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday making new highs on current move @ 104.75. Upside Target of 105% achieved.
- September Brent Crude traded through our upside objective listed at the end of June on Tuesday after climbing over halfway back from its decent in early May through the end of June.
- While trading in a very thin range on Tuesday, Brent will need to see a large draw in crude inventories in order to avoid dropping back below $100 to 98.71.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.39
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/03/12 @ 86.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/13/12 @ 87.10. Upside Targets = 90.53 – 91.32.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday making new highs on current move @ 89.80. Upside Target 80% achieved.
- September WTI Crude was able to crack last week’s low on Tuesday in another light day of trading before stalling just below $90 after the $12 price increase during the past three weeks.
- WTI, like Brent, may be running out of buyers as it nears $90 on the current ST move and is technically due for a modest correction back lower unless a large storage draw is revealed in tomorrow’s EIA report.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.04
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/10/12 @ 2.752. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.737. Downside Targets = 2.670 – 2.534.
- August Natural Gas dropped sharply lower due to HFT as soon as the overnight session began on Monday evening but spent most of the pit session trading higher above $2.80 due to the relentless heat wave across most of the country.
- While natural gas was able to come within two ticks of last week’s low, its resilience to break through $2.70 could spell for another upward leg to this month long rally that has brought prices up over $0.65 from the June lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .114
- Projected Weekly Range: .284
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
