Gold in danger of falling further, S&Ps target 1400

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 07/18/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1596.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
  • Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1596.60 or higher.
  • August Gold was in for another erratic trading session on Tuesday as it whipsawed traders around before failing to break $1,600/oz. and last traded below the day’s mid-range.
  • If Tuesday’s low of $1,571.00 is violated, Gold could drop lower throughout the rest of this week’s trading and fall to at least $1,551.20 or else generate its third weekly VRCB.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/2012 @ 1.2302. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Upside Target = 1.2412.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2302 or higher.
  • The September Euro FX dropped sharply in early morning trading on Tuesday as chairman Bernanke’s statement to the US Senate Banking Committee sent FX currencies for a spill while boosting the USD on his bleak economic outlook.
  • The euro was, however, able to rally back throughout the afternoon session to regain its earlier losses to post its third straight gain as it looks to continue its upward momentum to our upside target.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0114
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0290
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/17/12 @ 1353.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/17/12 @ 1358.50 Upside Targets = 1378.50 – 1393.25.
  • The September S&P’s were in for a very volatile trading session on Tuesday as Fed chairman Bernanke’s comments on the economy first had the markets in a serious decline but rebounded through the session for another solid gain and breaking through last week’s high.
  • The S&Ps should now retest July’s high @ 1375 this week before going after our upside target of 1393.25 and meeting heavy resistance as it nears 1400.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

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