Gold, stock indexes waiting on Bernanke testimony

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 07/17/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/06/12 @ 1595.20. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1596.60. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1596.60 or higher.
  • August Gold finished Monday’s session virtually unchanged on the day after rallying back from an overnight decline as investors await statements from Fed Chairman Bernanke on inflation and how that may affect the gold market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 23.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
  • C > HOLB (Close Above High of Low Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation above 1.2301. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2302 or higher.
  • The September Euro FX was able to follow through on last Friday’s bullish OVB as it once again found support below 1.22 and rallied over 100 points higher in early morning trading on a poor US retail sales number.
  • The Euro should not be viewed as a major “buy” right now but merely a market that has been drastically oversold into some Short Term support and the current 2 day move should fizzle out as it approaches the 1.25 threshold.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0099
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0290
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 1342.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 1335.50 Downside Targets = 1308.25 – 1291.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1353.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1353.50 or higher.
  • The September S&P’s traded just two ticks away from generating a VRCB on Monday as another day of low volume ahead of both economic reports, earnings and, most importantly, the Fed chairman’s lecture to congress tomorrow.
  • Look for a move higher ahead of the report as investors anticipate further QE measures due to poor domestic economic conditions.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.75

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