KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/06/12 @ 1595.20. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1596.60. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1596.60 or higher.
- August Gold finished Monday’s session virtually unchanged on the day after rallying back from an overnight decline as investors await statements from Fed Chairman Bernanke on inflation and how that may affect the gold market.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.40
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- C > HOLB (Close Above High of Low Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation above 1.2301. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2302 or higher.
- The September Euro FX was able to follow through on last Friday’s bullish OVB as it once again found support below 1.22 and rallied over 100 points higher in early morning trading on a poor US retail sales number.
- The Euro should not be viewed as a major “buy” right now but merely a market that has been drastically oversold into some Short Term support and the current 2 day move should fizzle out as it approaches the 1.25 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: .0099
- Projected Weekly Range: .0290
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 1342.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 1335.50 Downside Targets = 1308.25 – 1291.50.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1353.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1353.50 or higher.
- The September S&P’s traded just two ticks away from generating a VRCB on Monday as another day of low volume ahead of both economic reports, earnings and, most importantly, the Fed chairman’s lecture to congress tomorrow.
- Look for a move higher ahead of the report as investors anticipate further QE measures due to poor domestic economic conditions.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 103.57. Upside Target over 300% achieved.
- September Brent Crude traded to within 34 cents of our current upside target on Monday as the near month long rally continues with further US sanctions on Iran taking effect and driving up the global prices.
- Despite the current downtrodden economic conditions, geopolitical issues are at the front of the driving force in this market but depending upon chairman Bernanke’s comments to Congress beginning tomorrow, this market could run into additional resistance as it nears $105.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.64
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 07/03/12 @ 86.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/13/12 @ 87.10. Upside Targets = 90.53 – 91.32.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 88.87. Upside Target 70% achieved.
- September WTI Crude narrowly avoided generating its third consecutive VRCB on Monday as a late session rally propelled WTI to its highest closing price in 6 weeks.
- WTI should continue higher to begin Tuesday as it challenges last week’s high on its way to break through the $90 barrier.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/10/12 @ 2.752. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.737. Downside Targets = 2.670 – 2.534.
- Bearish OVB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.921. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 2.921 or higher.
- August Natural Gas dropped sharply lower in a volatile trading session on Monday as weather forecast call for cooler temperatures from record heat waves across parts of the country.
- Natural gas fought back off the day’s lows towards the end of trading Monday and, unless it can break through last week’s low @ 2.718, this market should remain in a slightly neutral to bullish trading pattern this week.
- Projected Daily Range: .139
- Projected Weekly Range: .284
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
