Most emerging stocks decline on lowered global growth forecast

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Most emerging-market stocks retreated as retail purchases in the U.S. unexpectedly fell and the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast, dimming the outlook for exporters.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed at 926.67 at 10:57 a.m. in New York, with 375 companies falling and 359 advancing. Brazil’s Bovespa stock index fell from a one-week high and mining companies Vale SA and MMX Mineracao & Metalicos SA fell on concern China’s slowdown may hurt exports. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to its lowest close since March 2009 and the BSE India Sensitive Index, or Sensex, posted a fourth day of losses.

Retail sales in the U.S. fell for a third straight month, posting a 0.5 percent drop. The decline was worse than the most- pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey in which the median projection called for a 0.2 percent rise. The IMF cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent and reduced its projection on China’s growth to 8 percent from 8.2 in 2012.

“The retail sales number is a clear negative and not a good sign for consumer growth,” Greg Lesko, who helps oversee about $700 million at Deltec Asset Management in New York, said in a telephone interview. “Emerging markets trade along the lines of global growth expectations and today that’s not a positive.”

MSCI’s index of developing nations, which has gained 1.1 percent this year, trades at a multiple of 10.1 percent estimated earnings, compared with 12.3 for the developed-nation gauge, according to compiled by Bloomberg.

EM ETF Drops

The IShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index exchange-traded fund, the ETF tracking developing-nation shares, dropped 0.6 percent to $38.26.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index, a measure of options prices on the fund and expectations of price swings, gained 2.5 percent to 26.99.

The Bovespa slid 0.8 percent. Vale fell 0.7 percent while MMX tumbled 3.9 percent. OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA, the oil company controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, retreated 5.1 percent as Deutsche Bank AG lowered its recommendation to sell from hold.

Russia’s benchmark Micex gauge rose 0.4 percent, led by Federal Grid Co., which gained 2.6 percent.

South Africa’s FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index dropped 0.2 percent as commodities including copper and oil declined. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest resources company, fell 0.8 percent.

Hungary’s BUX Index rose 1.2 percent, led by FHB Mortgage Bank Nyrt., which jumped 1.7 percent.

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