Stock market equivocates: Minor Cycle holds key

Weekly Review: Weekly NYSE trading volume rose 45% last week

Daily S & P 500 with Cumulative Volume (CV)

cumulative, volume, s&p

Weekly S & P 500 with Cumulative Volume (CV)

cumulative, volume, s&p, weekly

Also, retracement of losses since early April was “normal,” the rebounding since the June lows should be over. That could mean Friday’s strength was more reflexive than assertive. Underscoring that notion is the fact our primary Trading Oscillators on the Minor Cycle remain positive, with one holding toward “Overbought.” The other moderately so. Which means that more buying will only push both back toward “Overbought” levels and near-term vulnerability sooner. Net selling would be required to move both into “Oversold” territory and zones of opportunity.

Daily S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

cumulative, volume, daily, emini

Weekly S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

cumulative, volume, emini, weekly

And in the background sits the larger Intermediate Cycle that has continued to threaten on the downside over the past several weeks, but with only modest conviction. Neutrality prevails. If it turns out the near-term trend is in an endgame and that last Friday’s strength is unsustainable, a short-term reversal to negative would force intermediate neutrality back into the negative column. If, however, the short-term trend has more legs than we think and the S&P 500 July 3 high at 1374.81 is surpassed as index pricing moves decisively above 10-Week Price Channels (the S&P is already above 1353.07 and this week’s level by default through July 20), those April highs (1422.38—S&P 500) and major resistance would come into sharper focus.

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