Stock market drops Thursday, recovers marginally into close

Short-term positive remains under threat

Stock index, chart, technical analysis Stock index, chart, technical analysis

Market Snapshot for session ending 7-12-12



Day Change


S&P 500 Index




Dow Jones Industrials




NASDAQ Composite




Value Line Arithmetic Index




Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Neutral / Negative

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months)  Neutral / Negative

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Neutral

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Major indexes posted small losses Thursday with modest recovery following the day’s lows reached near 11 am.
  • Short-term positive remains under threat. S&P 500 was last trading below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel, but confirming negative action is needed by short-term Momentum and our Trading Oscillators, all of which are on brink of negativity.
  • NYSE trading volume was off a touch Thursday compared to Wednesday’s activity while Average Price per Share declined 27 cents to $58.11.
  • Larger Intermediate Cycle trend remains negative. Sustained buying above upper edge of 10-Week Price Channel (1358.88—S&P 500 through July 13) would be required to reverse intermediate trend to positive.
  • Daily MAAD was negative Thursday with 4 issues up and 16 down and was last plotted at level equivalent to S&P 500 price of about 1320.
  • Daily CPFL was positive Thursday by 4.56 to 1.
  • Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 and S&P 500 Emini futures contract was last on verge of breaking below uptrends created after June 4 lows. CV in both remains generally weaker than S&P 500 prices.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Short-term uptrend initiated after June 4 lows has become increasingly vulnerable. S&P 500 was last marginally below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel and defined uptrend line in effect since June 4 lows (1266.74—S&P 500) to suggest move since June 4 low could prove to be no more than reflex rally within context of still negative intermediate trend.
  • Downside break would indicate end of Minor Cycle positive and re-assertion of larger Intermediate Cycle negative. Actual June lows would then become critically important to staying power of market.
  • Last Friday’s downside break below rising trend line in MAAD could be evidence of developing internal weakness of month-old advance.
  • Status of Intermediate Cycle will ultimately determine outcome of larger and more important Major Cycle trend that has been underway since March 2009, but which has had weaker statistical underpinnings than long-term rallies over the past decade and since March 2000 price highs.

Click charts to enlarge

cumulative, volume, s&p

cumulative, volume, emini


Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops











S&P 500 Index

SELL 1321.91

SELL 1327.31

SELL 1333.75

SELL 1339.76

SELL 1342.75

BUY 1358.88

SELL 1205.40

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 12542.00

SELL 12580.83

SELL 12627.02

SELL 12672.52

SELL 12688.93

BUY 12841.05

SELL 11616.99

NASDAQ Composite

SELL 2857.26

SELL 2868.68

SELL 2882.93

SELL 2898.25

SELL 2905.98

BUY 2947.47

SELL 2553.42

Value Line Index

SELL 2784.00

SELL 2804.48

SELL 2824.75

SELL 2845.83

SELL 2859.83

BUY 2918.50

SELL 2598.64

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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