Oil makes modest gains on euro weakness

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 07/13/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
  • August Brent Crude was able to generate new highs for the week on Thursday as it traded within a $1 of last week’s high and closed at its highest level in 6 weeks.
  • With volatility having nearly evaporated this week and Brent having traded mostly sideways, this market should see a slight drawback on Friday to end the week just above $100.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.59
  • Projected Weekly Range: 8.91
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 84.01. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 83.91. Downside Targets = 80.93 – 78.20.
  • VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 86.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 86.50 or higher.
  • August WTI Crude, like Brent, has traded mostly out to the side this week in a very narrow range as further exhibited by Thursday’s price action however it has managed to log daily gains in three out of four sessions.
  • WTI may be able to see a modest gain overall on Friday but look for little volatility again going into the weekend.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.31
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.66
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/10/12 @ 2.752. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 2.737. Downside Targets = 2.670 – 2.534.
  • C > HOLB (Close Above High of Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.921. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 2.921 or higher.
  • August Natural Gas saw another extremely volatile trading session on Thursday as the inventory build was above estimates triggering an initial sell-off of 15 cents followed by the realization that the build was still a relatively low number and prices reversed course to break through the $2.90 threshold.
  • Look for gas to set back slightly on Friday just below $2.85 before moving back higher to begin another move to $3.072.
  • Projected Daily Range: .175
  • Projected Weekly Range: .290
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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