KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 103.91.
- August Brent Crude was able to generate new highs for the week on Thursday as it traded within a $1 of last week’s high and closed at its highest level in 6 weeks.
- With volatility having nearly evaporated this week and Brent having traded mostly sideways, this market should see a slight drawback on Friday to end the week just above $100.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.59
- Projected Weekly Range: 8.91
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 84.01. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 83.91. Downside Targets = 80.93 – 78.20.
- VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 86.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 86.50 or higher.
- August WTI Crude, like Brent, has traded mostly out to the side this week in a very narrow range as further exhibited by Thursday’s price action however it has managed to log daily gains in three out of four sessions.
- WTI may be able to see a modest gain overall on Friday but look for little volatility again going into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.31
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.66
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/10/12 @ 2.752. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 2.737. Downside Targets = 2.670 – 2.534.
- C > HOLB (Close Above High of Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.921. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 2.921 or higher.
- August Natural Gas saw another extremely volatile trading session on Thursday as the inventory build was above estimates triggering an initial sell-off of 15 cents followed by the realization that the build was still a relatively low number and prices reversed course to break through the $2.90 threshold.
- Look for gas to set back slightly on Friday just below $2.85 before moving back higher to begin another move to $3.072.
- Projected Daily Range: .175
- Projected Weekly Range: .290
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/06/12 @ 1595.20. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70.
- August Gold again traded in perfect correlation to Thursday morning’s report as it broke through $1,560 into the bullish consolidation zone before rebounding during intraday trading to settle just below the day’s mid-range.
- Gold finished off the session by continuing to move higher and should have a lead going into Friday’s session and should remain above $1,560 while not violating Thursday’s high.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 61.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1.2176. Downside Target 115% achieved.
- The September Euro FX again fell lower on Thursday continuing a week of very little volatility all the while generating new 2 year lows each day.
- While the Euro was able to rally back near the day’s mid-range by the close of the electronic trading session, the euro found much resistance at 1.2250 during intraday trading and should continue to work lower towards our extended downside objective of 1.2097.
- Projected Daily Range: .0089
- Projected Weekly Range: .0307
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 1342.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 1335.50 Downside Targets = 1308.25 – 1291.50.
- The September S&P’s fell lower for the 3rd session this week as lack of action from the Fed has investors worried that the stock market may have to fend for itself which is a very scary premonition due to the downward revised economic expectations for both the domestic and global economy.
- Look for a short covering rally to end the week before running into heavy resistance below 1342.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
