Oil setting up for push higher, targeting $90.98

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 07/12/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
  • Bullish CLOSE REVERSAL generated on Wednesday.
  • August Brent Crude held this week’s current low and traded decisively higher on Wednesday after a draw in crude inventories helped prop the crude oil market up.
  • Look for a retest of last week’s high @ 102.34 if new highs for the week are made on Thursday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.69
  • Projected Weekly Range: 8.91
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 84.01. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/10/12 @ 83.91. Downside Targets = 80.93 – 78.20.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 86.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 86.50 or higher.
  • August WTI Crude generated a bullish close gap from Tuesday while making new highs in the second half of the trading week, violating Monday’s high by a single tick.
  • Like Brent, should WTI generate new highs for the week, this market could be setting up for another push higher through $90 to $90.98.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.42
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.66
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/10/12 @ 2.752. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.737. Downside Targets = 2.670 – 2.534.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 2.718.
  • August Natural Gas reversed its close indicator from bearish to bullish today as it settled up over 11 cents outperforming the other components in the energy sector by a nearly 2:1 percentage basis.
  • After having fallen nearly 35 cents in the previous 3 trading sessions, natural gas was due for a volatility based rally and could continue these gains into tomorrow’s EIA supply report.
  • Projected Daily Range: .148
  • Projected Weekly Range: .290
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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