KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 97.72. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 97.72 or lower.
- August Brent Crude came within less than 10 cents of generating a double close reversal on Tuesday after trading just into last week’s resistance zone.
- If Tuesday is able to break lower and violate Monday’s low of 97.92, look for Brent to head back south to challenge last week’s low @ 95.30.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.95
- Projected Weekly Range: 8.91
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 84.01. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/03/12 @ 87.66. Upside Targets = 87.99 – 90.12
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 84.01 or lower.
- August WTI Crude worked back above $86 on Monday in a bout of short-covering after such a large decline toward the end of last week.
- WTI should now fall back decisively lower on Tuesday and confirm a Short Term top before making a break lower back to $78.31.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.69
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.66
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
- Inside compression day on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.752. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.752 or lower.
- August Natural Gas traded straight up on Monday, putting in the short-covering rally suggested in Monday mornings report and trading just 11 ticks back inside last Thursday’s range.
- After failing to break through $2.90 during intraday trading on Monday while running into heavy resistance, look for natural gas to settle back lower on Tuesday as it sets up a possible break below last week’s low of $2.742.
- Projected Daily Range: .118
- Projected Weekly Range: .290
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/06/12 @ 1595.20. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70
- August Gold worked back slightly higher on Monday as projected in the morning report, closing in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
- Gold will most likely face some additional pressure on Tuesday to the downside, making new lows on the current move and possibly closing below last week’s low of $1,576.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 26.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 61.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1.2266. Downside Target 97% achieved.
- The September Euro FX traded within a very narrow range on Monday, just avoiding a possible VRCB signal trading back within the range of the Support Bollinger Band towards the session close.
- After relieving a bit off pressure as suggest in the Monday morning report, look for the euro to continue a shade higher tomorrow before running into additional selling pressure just above 1.24.
- Projected Daily Range: .0125
- Projected Weekly Range: .0307
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 1342.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/29/12 @ 1356.50 Upside Targets = 1357.25 – 1370.75 – 1384.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1342.00 or lower.
- The September S&P’s dropped lower in early trading on Monday, breaking through last week’s low before rallying in the second half of the day to close on the opening tick.
- The S&P’s should continue to fall lower on Tuesday to generate new lows on the week as it trades down to 1326.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
