Oil setting up for fall back to $78.31

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 07/10/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 97.72. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 97.72 or lower.
  • August Brent Crude came within less than 10 cents of generating a double close reversal on Tuesday after trading just into last week’s resistance zone.
  • If Tuesday is able to break lower and violate Monday’s low of 97.92, look for Brent to head back south to challenge last week’s low @ 95.30.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.95
  • Projected Weekly Range: 8.91
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/09/12 @ 84.01. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/03/12 @ 87.66. Upside Targets =  87.99 – 90.12
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 84.01 or lower.
  • August WTI Crude worked back above $86 on Monday in a bout of short-covering after such a large decline toward the end of last week.
  • WTI should now fall back decisively lower on Tuesday and confirm a Short Term top before making a break lower back to $78.31.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.69
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.66
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
  • Inside compression day on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.752. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.752 or lower.
  • August Natural Gas traded straight up on Monday, putting in the short-covering rally suggested in Monday mornings report and trading just 11 ticks back inside last Thursday’s range.
  • After failing to break through $2.90 during intraday trading on Monday while running into heavy resistance, look for natural gas to settle back lower on Tuesday as it sets up a possible break below last week’s low of $2.742.
  • Projected Daily Range: .118
  • Projected Weekly Range: .290
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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