Aussie rally to offer favorable entries

DailyFX forex winners and losers

The euro is the weakest performer in late European trade with a loss of 0.21% on the session. The EURUSD now rests just above our initial monthly objective at the 50% Fibonacci extension taken from the May 1st and June 18th crests at 1.2250. The move off the June 18th high represents wave 5 of a 3 with a break below 1.0250 eyeing the key 61.8% extension at 1.2130. Interim daily resistance stands with the 38.2% extension at 1.2365 and is backed by soft resistance at 1.2435. We maintain our bearish outlook on the single currency with rallies offering favorable short-entries. Note that daily RSI has continued to hold below the 40-mark with a breach above risking a more substantial correction before moving lower.

The scalp chart shows the EURUSD holding just above interim support at the 123.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the June 17th and 29th crests at 1.2270. A break below this mark eyes subsequent floors at 1.2250 and the 138.2% extension at 1.2208 with key support seen at the 61.8% extension at 1.2140. Soft interim resistance stands at 1.2310 backed by the 100% extension at 1.2350, 1.2370, and the 1.24-handle. A breach above the 78.6% extension at 1.2425 invalidates intra-day shorts with such a scenario likely to see a more substantial rally before continuing lower. Note that RSI is now poised for a break below the 30-mark, with such a scenario offering further conviction on intra-day short scalps.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

1.3113

100-Day SMA

1.2918

50-Day SMA

1.2626

2012 EUR LOW

1.2255

 

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About the Author
Michael Boutros Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com is a Technical/Fundamental Analyst specializing in the FX markets. E-mail: mboutros@fxcm.com.
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