KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low of High Bar) generated on Frday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 97.72. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 97.72 or lower.
- August Brent Crude gave back nearly all of its weekly gains on Friday on a poor Employment Situation report after trading up to the daily Resistance Bollinger Band and falling nearly $4.50 over the last 24 hours of trading last week.
- Look for Brent to trade back near $100 in early trading this week before running into heavy resistance and trading back down to 94.14.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.47
- Projected Weekly Range: 8.91
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/29/12 @ 80.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/03/12 @ 87.66. Upside Targets = 87.99 – 90.12
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low of High Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 84.01. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 84.01 or lower.
- August WTI Crude gave back ALL of its weekly gains on Friday to close below Monday’s open of $84.65.
- WTI should trade back near $86 on Monday before trading back lower to $80.92 and retesting the contract lows at $77.28.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.29
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.66
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
- Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Friday after making new highs on current move @ 3.060. Upside Targets over 200% achieved.
- August Natural Gas blew through $3 on Friday for the first time since Jan. 10 before reversing sharply lower to close at its lowest level in six sessions.
- Look for natural gas to stage s short covering rally early on Monday before dropping back to the mini-consolidation period during mid-June just above $2.60.
- Projected Daily Range: .148
- Projected Weekly Range: .290
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 07/06/12 @ 1595.20. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 07/06/12 @ 1578.90. Downside Targets = 1549.90 – 1522.70
- August Gold dropped sharply lower on Friday because of the terrible employment situation report released on Friday which signaled that the US and other global economies are not improving as many regulators had hoped, driving down demand for the precious metal.
- Gold should spend most of Monday working a shade higher before falling back lower later in the week as it makes another run at the contract lows at $1,529.30.
- Projected Daily Range: 26.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 61.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1.2271. Downside Target 97% achieved.
- The September Euro FX blew through the daily Support Bollinger Band on Friday as it generated fresh 2012 lows as the NFP report and continuing European weakness is causing the deterioration of the euro.
- Look for the euro to make a modest bounce higher in early week trading before losing steam and then generating fresh contract lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .0163
- Projected Weekly Range: .0307
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/29/12 @ 1356.50 Upside Targets = 1357.25 – 1370.75 – 1384.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1342.00. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1342.00.
- The September S&P’s sank lower for the second consecutive day on Friday as a poor US jobs picture sent the market down for the week after erasing nearly 75 point gain over the previous week and a half.
- The S&P’s should continue to fall back lower this week towards 1314.25 after trading back near last Thursday’s low.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
