Oil gives up gains, may retest contract lows

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 07/09/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low of High Bar) generated on Frday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 97.72. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 97.72 or lower.
  • August Brent Crude gave back nearly all of its weekly gains on Friday on a poor Employment Situation report after trading up to the daily Resistance Bollinger Band and falling nearly $4.50 over the last 24 hours of trading last week.
  • Look for Brent to trade back near $100 in early trading this week before running into heavy resistance and trading back down to 94.14.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.47
  • Projected Weekly Range: 8.91
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/29/12 @ 80.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 07/03/12 @ 87.66. Upside Targets =  87.99 – 90.12
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low of High Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 84.01. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 84.01 or lower.
  • August WTI Crude gave back ALL of its weekly gains on Friday to close below Monday’s open of $84.65.
  • WTI should trade back near $86 on Monday before trading back lower to $80.92 and retesting the contract lows at $77.28.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.29
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.66
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

Natural Gas (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
  • Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Friday after making new highs on current move @ 3.060. Upside Targets over 200% achieved.
  • August Natural Gas blew through $3 on Friday for the first time since Jan. 10 before reversing sharply lower to close at its lowest level in six sessions.
  • Look for natural gas to stage s short covering rally early on Monday before dropping back to the mini-consolidation period during mid-June just above $2.60.
  • Projected Daily Range: .148
  • Projected Weekly Range: .290
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

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