As the European embargo on Iranian oil takes effect, an Iranian lawmaker borrowing from none other than Thomas Jefferson, saying they have an unalienable right to nuclear technology. Of course the quote was spelled "inalienable" which brings up a debate that has been going on since 1776 as to which is correct. But it brings up the question as to whether a rouge state has a right either unalienable or inalienable to pursue a weapon of mass destruction or does the world have a responsibility to try to stop them in their tracks.
The answer comes in the same document that the Iranian lawmaker tried to use in their defense and that is the Declaration of Independence itself. You see when Mr. Jefferson was writing about rights, it was not about the rights of the state but the rights of the individual. And in a warning to the Iranian Government, from the grave he said, “that to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to affect their Safety and Happiness.
You see by the Iranian government silencing their own people, killing dissenters and using force to stay in power, they as a governing authority, gave up their rights as a legitimate government. Once you become a tyrant you dissolve the fundamental bonds that have connected you as a legitimate leader of your own people and a true steward of your people’s destiny. “When a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new guards for their future security".
And the Iranian people’s future security is at risk. As this murderous regime spreads its terror throughout the region, lending support to murderous regimes like the one in Syria and threatening to wipe certain countries off the face of the earth, the Iranian regime has put its country on a path that could indeed lead to war. Innocent Iranians that really want no part of this regime will be put at risk because of this regime.
So the Iranian government really should be careful by trying to use the Declaration of Independence for self-justification because it does not justify them, it condemns them.
The Iran situation maybe one reason oil has rallied. Goldman Sachs apparently put out a report as reported by Bloomberg that said sanctions on Iranian oil exports are likely to have a bigger impact on the global crude market than previously estimated, and the country’s exports may drop to near 1 million barrels a day.
Of course Iran still wants to lash out! The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps launched several days of drills Monday to test missiles capable of hitting targets as far away as Israel, one day after the European Union put into effect its planned embargo against Iranian oil.
The three days of war games in the north-central desert area of Semnan province, dubbed the Great Prophet 7, were reported by official news agencies. They are aimed at testing the precision and efficiency of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' warheads and missile system, the reports said.
Iran routinely conducts military drills. The continuing crisis in Syria, Iran's closest ally in the Arab world, and the near-failed nuclear talks with the West could potentially make Iran vulnerable for a military attack.
The New York Times is reporting that the United States has quietly moved significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any possible attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz and to increase the number of fighter jets capable of striking deep into Iran if the standoff over its nuclear program escalates.
The deployments are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in the Gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.”
But at a moment that the United States and its allies are beginning to enforce a much broader embargo on Iran’s oil exports, meant to force the country to take seriously the negotiations over sharply limiting its nuclear program, the buildup carries significant risks, including that Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps could decide to lash out against the increased presence.
The most visible elements of this buildup are Navy ships designed to vastly enhance the ability to patrol the Strait of Hormuz and to reopen the narrow waterway should Iran attempt to mine it to prevent Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters from sending their tankers through the vital passage.
The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers assigned to the region, to eight vessels, in what military officers describe as a purely defensive move.
“The message to Iran is, ‘Don’t even think about it,’ ” one senior Defense Department official said. “Don’t even think about closing the strait. We’ll clear the mines. Don’t even think about sending your fast boats out to harass our vessels or commercial shipping. We’ll put them on the bottom of the gulf.” Like others interviewed, the official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the diplomatic and military situation.
Since late spring, stealthy F-22 and older F-15C warplanes have moved into two separate bases in the Persian Gulf to bolster the combat jets already in the region and the carrier strike groups that are on constant tours of the area. Those additional attack aircraft give the United States military greater capability against coastal missile batteries that could threaten shipping, as well as the reach to strike other targets deeper inside Iran.
And the Navy, after a crash development program, has moved a converted amphibious transport and docking ship, the Ponce, into the Persian Gulf to serve as the Pentagon’s first floating staging base for military operations or humanitarian assistance.
The initial assignment for the Ponce, Pentagon officials say, is to serve as a logistics and operations hub for mine-clearing. But with a medical suite and helicopter deck, and bunks for combat troops, the Ponce eventually could be used as a base for Special Operations forces to conduct a range of missions, including reconnaissance and counterterrorism, all from international waters.
For Obama, the combination of negotiations, new sanctions aimed at Iran’s oil revenues and increased military pressure is the latest — and perhaps the most vital — test of what the White House calls a “two track” policy against Iran. In the midst of a presidential election campaign in which his opponent, Mitt Romney, has accused him of being “weak” in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue, Mr. Obama seeks to project toughness without tipping into a crisis in the region.
At the same time he must signal support for Israel, but not so much support that the Israelis see the buildup as an opportunity to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities, which Mr. Obama’s team believes could set off a war without significantly setting back the Iranian program.
A key motivation for “Olympic Games,” the covert effort to undermine Iran’s enrichment capability with cyber attacks, has been to demonstrate to the Israelis that there are more effective ways to slow the program than to strike from the air.
But this delicate signaling to both Iran and Israel is a complex dance. Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said that the administration must strike a fine balance between positioning enough forces to deter Iran, but not inadvertently indicate to Iran or Israel that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is imminent or inevitable.
Yet while the market may be a bit worried about Iran it was the dismal ISM manufacturing number that brought oil back down. This number does not bode well for oil demand and it probably signals that Friday’s jobs report will not be that great. Yet with an ongoing strike in Norway impacting 15% of Norway’s production and rumors of a Fourth of July stimulus spectacular in Europe is giving oil a boost driving Brent Crude back over $100. With Iran Oil out and Norway on strike it is giving the oil market reason to bounce!
See Phil's ode to specs: The Speculation of Independence!
The Speculation of Independence!
When, in the course of human trading events, it becomes necessary for one market to dissolve the fundamental bonds which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the market, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Supply and Demand and of Nature's God entitle them, with decent respect to the opinions of the buyers and the sellers requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to admit that we have a fair price for oil.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all traders are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Profits. That to secure these rights the markets is instituted among men and women deriving their just powers from the consent of the hedgers and the speculators. That whenever any form of long or short position becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the position holders to alter or to abolish said position and buy or sell it, and to institute new position, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its portfolio in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to affect their Safety and Happiness.