E-mini S&P sees trend reversal on Monday

pending chart 1412

Small final flag top at high of last week, sell vacuum test of 15 minute 20 bar moving average plotted on a 5 minute chart, lower low major trend reversal, then weak bull channel

  • Monday, July 2, 2012
  • Bar 1 - Yesterday ended with strong bull spike after big rally so probably buy climax. 4th of july week so 2nd slowest week of yesterday and probably mostly ttrs and small days this week. Last week and month closed on high on fri, and market in trading range so odds are, sellers above. Tight trading range 3 bars and tail so buyers below.
  • Bar 2 - Bull reversal bar but tight trading range and top of probably trading range so scalp only or wait for final flag top
  • Bar 5 - Two bar revresal, final flag, fail, failure breakout of high of yesterday, last week, last month. Possible high of the day. Report soon. Ok swing and scalp. Most traders should wait for report
  • Bar 7 - Huge bar and 140k contracts. 80% chance 4 is high of the day so sell or short rallies. If get bull leg, the market might eventually get new high of the day. Always in short. Big up, big down so sideways. Double bottom 73. Should bounce off 15 minute 20 bar moving average plotted on a 5 minute chart, maybe to 5 moving average
  • Bar 8 - Doji, double bottom 73. Should get trading range so should get up to middle of 7, but not strong signal bar. Sellers there and at moving average. Trading range likely
  • Bar 11 - One legged pullback in a bear move at moving average but 3 bull bars so not high probability. Should be buyers scaling in below
  • Bar 14 - Double bottom 8 but since trading range, should fall below support = 8 low = theoretical stop of swing bulls, then turn up
  • Bar 15 - Outside up bar after 1t fail, failure breakout below 8. Should test moving average and 11 high. Not strong signal bar. Should get at least 1t above 12 = theoretical stop for swing bears. In trading range, better to scalp and market usually goes above resistance and below support and then reverses
  • Bar 17 - Double top at moving average but doji after strong bull bar. Low probability swing sell or short. Trading range more likely. Ok scalp sell or short. Bears want spike and channel bear or bear trending trading range day, bulls want trading range or double bottom and new high of the day. Bear case stronger since 7, but trading range most likely after big up, big down and 4th of july.
  • Bar 19 - Possible triangle 8 15, but middle of trading range so not strong buy or long. Wait
  • Bar 21 - 17t fail, failure, nested two legged pullback in a bull move 8 22, 15 22, 19 22, but bear body. Fail, failure breakout new low of the day. Wait
  • [more Bar-by-Bar Analysis in the Forums at www.brookspriceaction.com]
About the Author
Al Brooks

Al Brooks, M.D., is author of the Brooks Trading Course (27 hours of videos at BrooksTradingCourse.com), several books on Price action (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader, Wiley, 2009, and the 500,000 word, three-book series, Trading Price Action, Wiley, 2012), and numerous articles in Futures Magazine. He also provides live intraday E-mini price action analysis and free end-of-day analysis on www.brookspriceaction.com.

Originally published on BPA Forums. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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