Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 07/02/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 98.29. Upside Targets over 225% achieved.
- August Brent Crude gapped higher on Friday and rallied to log its best single day gain of 2012 as it closed at its highest level in 3 weeks due to the European debt agreement.
- Brent should continue higher this week after some backing and filling to revitalize some buying pressure as this market should head to 103.91 over the next 2 weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.37
- Projected Weekly Range: 8.67
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.99
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/29/12 @ 80.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Upside Targets = 87.99 – 90.12
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 80.93. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 85.90.
- August WTI Crude saw its largest one day gain since February 2011 on Friday as it posted over $7 gain and closed at its highest level in 3 weeks on the European agreement news.
- Look for WTI to see a reduction in volatility over the holiday shortened week and catch its breath by trading out to the side before pushing through the June highs.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.07
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.22
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.71
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
- August Natural Gas traded to its highest weekly closing price since the first week of 2012 on Friday, setting this market up for a prolonged move higher above $3.
- Look for natural gas to challenge last week’s high of 2.975 in early trading this week and break through to our extended upside objective of 3.027.
- Projected Daily Range: .149
- Projected Weekly Range: .315
- Projected Monthly Range: .586
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 1606.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1565.50. Upside Targets = 1624.40 – 1639.70
- C > HOLB (Close Above High of Low Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1607.90. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1607.90 or higher.
- August Gold exploded higher on Friday for its largest one day gain in nearly a month on news that the Euro crisis may have reached a short term resolution with additional EU funding.
- After such an extreme rally, look for gold to settle back near 1585.00 before moving higher to 1624.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 28.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.00
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Friday.
- The September Euro FX exploded higher due to news of another “bailout” package by the EU being agreed to at the European Summit meeting late last week as the Euro closed at its highest weekly level in almost 6 weeks.
- Questions remain over how certain provisions would actually be carried out so the Euro may see a slight setback during this week but our Short-Term view is now strongly bullish and traders should be looking for buying opportunities on the next setback.
- Projected Daily Range: .0081
- Projected Weekly Range: .0248
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDICES
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/29/12 @ 1356.50 Upside Targets = 1357.25 – 1370.75 – 1384.50.
- The September S&P’s exploded higher for their best single day gain of 2012 based on what looks to be the belief that Europe has come to terms on how to stave off the default of its many troubled nations.
- The S&P’s should continue to balloon higher for the first part of July up to 1384.50 before it runs into heavy resistance from where the market fell apart in May.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.75
