Energies reverse trends

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday July 2

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 07/02/12

 

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

 

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 98.29. Upside Targets over 225% achieved.
    • August Brent Crude gapped higher on Friday and rallied to log its best single day gain of 2012 as it closed at its highest level in 3 weeks due to the European debt agreement.
    • Brent should continue higher this week after some backing and filling to revitalize some buying pressure as this market should head to 103.91 over the next 2 weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.37
  • Projected Weekly Range: 8.67
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.99

 

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/29/12 @ 80.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Upside Targets =  87.99 – 90.12
  • Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 80.93. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 85.90.
    • August WTI Crude saw its largest one day gain since February 2011 on Friday as it posted over $7 gain and closed at its highest level in 3 weeks on the European agreement news.
    • Look for WTI to see a reduction in volatility over the holiday shortened week and catch its breath by trading out to the side before pushing through the June highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.07
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.22
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.71

 

Natural Gas (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
    • August Natural Gas traded to its highest weekly closing price since the first week of 2012 on Friday, setting this market up for a prolonged move higher above $3.
    • Look for natural gas to challenge last week’s high of 2.975 in early trading this week and break through to our extended upside objective of 3.027.
  • Projected Daily Range: .149
  • Projected Weekly Range: .315
  • Projected Monthly Range: .586

 

METALS

COMEX Gold (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 1606.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1565.50. Upside Targets = 1624.40 – 1639.70
  • C > HOLB (Close Above High of Low Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1607.90. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1607.90 or higher.
    • August Gold exploded higher on Friday for its largest one day gain in nearly a month on news that the Euro crisis may have reached a short term resolution with additional EU funding.
    • After such an extreme rally, look for gold to settle back near 1585.00 before moving higher to 1624.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: 28.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 62.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.00

 

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