KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 90.87. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 90.87 or lower.
- August Brent Crude fell back lower today, erasing nearly all of this week’s gains as weak GDP and Jobless Claims along with uncertainty facing the Eurozone weighed heavy on traders.
- Look for Brent to open higher as a continuation of the late day rally but ultimately work back near $90 by the close.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.59
- Projected Weekly Range: 8.04
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.82
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/28/12 @ 77.55. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Downside Targets = 72.96 – 72.50
- WTI moved sharply lower on Thursday, closing at its lowest price since the 2011 low day as anemic US economic data continues to dry up demand for oil and gas consumption.
- WTI, like the rest of the “risk” markets, should open strong and work back higher to 79.10 before returning lower to challenge the fresh contract lows set today @ 77.28
- Projected Daily Range: 2.37
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.48
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.27
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low of High Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.658. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.658 or lower.
- August Natural Gas saw another volatile session on Thursday as it dropped nearly 20 cents, again, from its intraday highs on a larger than expected storage injection before rallying back near the day’s mid-range in the last 30 minutes of pit-session trading.
- Gas still has another 10 cents to drop before trading back to our initial downside objective of 2.563 but the most important number of the next month will be tomorrow’s close.
- If natural gas closes above 2.759 tomorrow, it will confirm a Major-Term bottom and should lead this market above $3 during the first half of July trading.
- Projected Daily Range: .181
- Projected Weekly Range: .288
- Projected Monthly Range: .490
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 1606.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1565.50. Downside Targets = 1552.10 – 1534.00.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1547.60. Downside Target over 100% achieved.
- August Gold traded decisively lower on Thursday as the market dropped continually throughout the day making new 3 ½ week lows.
- With gold closing below the daily Support Bollinger Band, look for a modest pop to begin Friday trading as a round of short-covering may ease into the market before possibly trading lower to retest the 2012 lows @ 1526.90.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 71.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.90
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- VRCB-OVB combination generated on Thursday making new lows on current move @ 1.2417. Downside Target 70% achieved.
- The September Euro FX sank lower again on Thursday after running nearly 70 points higher in overnight trading before being slammed lower as London came online to new 3 week lows.
- After working its way back a shade higher during US pit hours, the Euro should see a large increase in volatility upon more news from the Euro Summit and what its implications mean for global speculators.
- Projected Daily Range: .0091
- Projected Weekly Range: .0233
- Projected Monthly Range: .0575
INDICES
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1318.25. Upside Targets = 1357.25 – 1370.75.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
- The September S&P’s had a very volatile session on Thursday, dropping nearly 20 points lower for most of the trading session before spiking higher towards the day’s end on news that leaders of the Euro Summit were making progress towards a possible settlement.
- The S&P’s should challenge Thursday’s high of 1327.75 in overnight trading before the personal income and outlays report moves the market along with whatever breaking news comes out of the Europe.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 53.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
