Natural gas sitting at key technical level

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 06/29/12

 

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

 

ENERGIES

 

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 90.87. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 90.87 or lower.
    • August Brent Crude fell back lower today, erasing nearly all of this week’s gains as weak GDP and Jobless Claims along with uncertainty facing the Eurozone weighed heavy on traders.
    • Look for Brent to open higher as a continuation of the late day rally but ultimately work back near $90 by the close.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.59
  • Projected Weekly Range: 8.04
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

 

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/28/12 @ 77.55. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Downside Targets =  72.96 – 72.50
    • WTI moved sharply lower on Thursday, closing at its lowest price since the 2011 low day as anemic US economic data continues to dry up demand for oil and gas consumption.
    • WTI, like the rest of the “risk” markets, should open strong and work back higher to 79.10 before returning lower to challenge the fresh contract lows set today @ 77.28
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.37
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.48
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

 

Natural Gas (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low of High Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.658. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.658 or lower.
    • August Natural Gas saw another volatile session on Thursday as it dropped nearly 20 cents, again, from its intraday highs on a larger than expected storage injection before rallying back near the day’s mid-range in the last 30 minutes of pit-session trading.
    • Gas still has another 10 cents to drop before trading back to our initial downside objective of 2.563 but the most important number of the next month will be tomorrow’s close.
      • If natural gas closes above 2.759 tomorrow, it will confirm a Major-Term bottom and should lead this market above $3 during the first half of July trading.
  • Projected Daily Range: .181
  • Projected Weekly Range: .288
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

 

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