KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Target = 95.37.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 93.95. Upside Target over 115% achieved.
- August Brent Crude continued to move higher on Wednesday after a modest draw in crude oil inventories was able to keep the market lifted throughout the day.
- Brent is now within $1.50 of where we expect this market to run into serious resistance and begin to flatten out to the side before returning lower to test the contract lows.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.32
- Projected Weekly Range: 8.04
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.82
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/12 @ 80.69. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Upside Targets = 82.56 – 83.56
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 80.69 or higher.
- August WTI Crude churned out its second consecutive daily gain on Wednesday as it closed at its highest level over the past 5 trading sessions.
- WTI should be able to generate new highs on Thursday before it begins to run into heavy resistance at the double bottom at 81.39 – 81.53.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.07
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.48
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.27
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
- Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Wednesday after making new highs on the current move @ 2.975.
- August Natural Gas exploded higher in early trading on Wednesday as it blew out remaining shorts in the market, flirting with the $3 threshold, then dropping nearly $.20 in the last two hours of pit session trading.
- Based on today’s close, this market should technical correct lower to $2.563 over the next few weeks but initiating short positions against both the Short Term and a newly reversed Intermediate Term trend is a risky play.
- Our advice would be to jump onboard the next buy entry as the market should then crack through $3 and challenge the Major Term upside target of $3.285.
- Projected Daily Range: .149
- Projected Weekly Range: .288
- Projected Monthly Range: .490
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 1606.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1565.50. Downside Targets = 1552.10 – 1534.00.
- C > HOLB (Closed Above High of Low Bar) generated on Wednesday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 1589.10. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1589.10 or higher.
- August Gold was able to squeak out a paltry gain on Wednesday after a volatile early morning as investors pushed the metal back and forth on ideas of how the euro crises will affect the safe-haven metal.
- Look for gold to try and work its way a bit higher on Thursday before unrelated volatility moves the market in early morning trading.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 71.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.90
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible SHORT TERM TREND REVERSAL from bearish to bullish with a close @ 1.2543 or higher.
- The September Euro FX dropped to its lowest closing price in more than three weeks on Wednesday despite trading within a very narrow range and was unable to generate new lows on the week.
- If the Euro is unable to generate new weekly lows on Thursday, a Short Term bounce higher to 1.2692 may soon follow after a confirmation of a higher low.
- Projected Daily Range: .0081
- Projected Weekly Range: .0233
- Projected Monthly Range: .0575
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/27/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1318.25. Upside Targets = 1357.25 – 1370.75.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
- The September S&P’s logged another solid gain on Wednesday as a boost in the energy sector helped propel the market to new weekly highs.
- After making new highs in the second half of the day on Wednesday, the technicals point the S&P’s higher toward a weekly objective of 1355.50.
- Note: With the Supreme Court ruling on the fate of Obamacare in early trading on Thursday, look for that decision to weigh heavily on market action in what should be a volatile end of the week.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 53.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
