KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/26/12 @ 91.76. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/26/12 @ 93.02. Upside Targets = 95.37.
- August Brent Crude followed through on yesterday morning’s report to extend its gains as it confirmed a Short Term bottom in the market while closing at its highest level in 5 sessions.
- Again, look for Brent to continue higher towards the Short Term objective of 95.37 before returning lower to retest the contract lows @ 88.49.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.64
- Projected Weekly Range: 8.04
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.82
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 82.35. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Downside Targets = 74.45 – 72.96
- Inside VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 80.69. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 80.69 or higher.
- August WTI Crude was barely able to squeak out a small gain on Tuesday despite trading within very forgettable range.
- If WTI takes out Tuesday’s high of 79.68, this market should be able to catch some wind beneath its sails going into the weekly EIA storage report.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.26
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.48
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.27
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range and close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535.
- ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday making new high on current move @ 2.821. Upside Target over 175% achieved.
- August Natural Gas had another late afternoon move on Tuesday picking up a dime in the second half-day of trading to last trade on the high tick of the day.
- Natural Gas has continued its run despite Tropical Storm Debby not affecting the offshore rigs as producers sent workers back out and looks to challenge the 2012 spot contract highs @ 3.123.
- Projected Daily Range: .116
- Projected Weekly Range: .288
- Projected Monthly Range: .490
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 1606.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1565.50. Downside Targets = 1552.10 – 1534.00.
- Possible Standard TREND REVERSAL to bullish @ 1589.10. Possible Conservative TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1589.10 or higher.
- August Gold reversed price action on Tuesday as the market cannot seem to pick a constant direction and is being traded according to whatever news comes across the squawk-box.
- Given recent price action trends, gold should be up tomorrow to make a push at new weekly highs and confirm a Short Term bottom.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 71.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.90
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2590. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/2012 @ 1.2563. Downside Target = 1.2246.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1.2451. Downside Target 60% achieved.
- The September Euro FX remained unchanged on Tuesday as they rallied back in mid-morning trading after generating new 2 week lows.
- If the Euro can close on a daily level below 1.2455, this market should accelerate to the downside and trade near the projected weekly downside target of 1.2336.
- Projected Daily Range: .0082
- Projected Weekly Range: .0233
- Projected Monthly Range: .0575
INDEXES
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/12 @ 1336.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1318.25. Downside Targets = 1280.00 – 1264.75.
- Inside day generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1326.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
- The September S&P’s regained some lost momentum on Tuesday, trading back to last week’s lows on improvements in the housing sector.
- After running into technical resistance during intraday trading, the S&P’s should fall back modestly on Wednesday before the Durable Goods report makes waves within the market.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 53.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
