Oil looking for a bump in oversold market conditions

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 06/25/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/13/12 @ 96.72. Downside Targets = 92.38 – 90.71.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 88.49. Downside Target 108% achieved.
  • August Brent Crude settled back higher on Friday due to a short covering rally after an $11 peak to valley week that saw Brent close below $90 on a daily level for the first time in over 18 months.
  • Dependent upon the path of the possible hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico, crude oil could see a modest bounce this week up to 96.53.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.58
  • Projected Weekly Range: 8.04
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 82.35. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Downside Targets =  74.45 – 72.96
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 77.56. Downside Target 66% achieved.
  • August WTI Crude closed back within the range of the daily Support Bollinger Band on Friday after dropping more than $8 during the first part of last week because of a short-covering rally.
  • Like Brent, WTI could see a slight price appreciation this week based on the extreme oversold nature of the market and because of what may be the first of many hurricanes this season.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.31
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.48
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

Natural Gas (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.535. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/14/12 @ 2.541.
  • August Natural Gas closed higher for the second consecutive day on Friday all the while generating a VRCB week as it ran into strong resistance above Thursday’s high as projected in last Thursday’s report.
  • Look for natural gas to trade back lower this week and once it violates Friday’s low at 2.577, last week’s low should go quickly for a retest of the June lows @ 2.215.
  • Projected Daily Range: .141
  • Projected Weekly Range: .288
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

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