Grain markets gear up for report-driven volatility

Stocks, ratings reports move markets

Wheat, grain Wheat, grain

Corn: This market has enjoyed its largest runs early in the week recently with consolidation expected to follow. This could very well be the same case this week.

Looking ahead, we will need to keep a close eye on weather forecast updates. Next, we will have to start preparing for the acreage and quarterly stocks reports on Friday. These two reports have caused four limit moves in the last four years, three of them were lower with one being higher.

Currently, the average trade estimate for corn acreage is 95.962 million acres, which is up 92,000 from the March estimate. Monday's good to excellent ratings fell 7% down to 56% for the nation. This is more than trade had looked for. Top five states…IA +1%, IL -15%, NE -2%, MN +1%, and IN -10%.…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: Last year’s June report saw a stocks number of 619 million bushels. Monday's crop ratings came out at 53% good to excellent. This number is a drop of 3% from last week. Top states of IA -2%, IL -12%, NE -4%, MN +1%, and IN -8%. We need to continue to look at the forecast closely, and even though the ratings are poor, the problem is how hard they are trending down. Expect volatility for the next week as we trade each weather report and a very tight crop…Cordon Sroka

Wheat: As we move through the week, the trade’s attention will shift to Friday’s quarterly stocks report as well as the planted acreage report. These reports will be released at 7:30 a.m., and we will be trading through the report. With Friday’s USDA reports, end of the month / quarter position squaring, and ever changing weather forecast, we look for market volatility to increase as we wrap up the month of June. Traders should consider using options to control risk while trading these volatile markets…Jim McCormick

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA.

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