KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/13/12 @ 96.72. Downside Targets = 92.38 – 90.71.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 88.90. Downside Target 105% achieved.
- August Brent Crude continued its decline further on Thursday, closing below the daily SBB for the first time in 3 weeks.
- Brent may see a little short-covering on Friday after a week that has seen a $10.60 peak to valley but should ultimately continue lower toward the Major-Term support price of 84.37.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.29
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.24
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.82
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 82.35. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Downside Targets = 74.45 – 72.96
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 77.93. Downside Target 60% achieved.
- August WTI Crude deteriorated further on Thursday as it too closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the first time since June 1, generating its lowest close since 2011’s low day on Oct. 4.
- Look for a small rally on Friday to relieve selling pressure before continuing lower toward our downside targets of 74.45 – 72.96.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.09
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.27
Natural Gas (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range and close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312.
- Inside day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.537. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.537 or lower.
- August Natural Gas moved back higher on Thursday after a smaller than projected storage number but was unable to break through to new weekly highs as the last trades were just above the daily mid-range.
- Should natural gas continue to move higher on Friday it should run into heavy resistance above Thursday’s high of 2.673 and fall back lower to retest the June lows @ 2.215.
- Projected Daily Range: .157
- Projected Weekly Range: .264
- Projected Monthly Range: .490
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 1606.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1565.50. Downside Targets = 1552.10 – 1534.00.
- August Gold traded down through our Short Term objective of $1,566.70 listed in yesterday morning’s report by a mere $1.90 before finding some intraday support above the June 8 lows.
- Gold should continue lower on Friday to trade to the weekly downside target of $1,554.80 before putting in a short-covering rally back up to $1,579.30 to end the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 79.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.90
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/12 @ 1.2566. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 06/21/12 @ 1.2563. Downside Targets = 1.2348 – 1.2246 – 1.2143.
- The September Euro FX traded according to plan on Thursday as it gapped opened higher before dropping sharply lower to new weekly lows and closing at its lowest price in 7 sessions.
- After Thursday’s price action, look to sell any rallies as this market may be slightly oversold into intraday support before heading south to our downside objectives listed above.
- Projected Daily Range: .0147
- Projected Weekly Range: .0310
- Projected Monthly Range: .0575
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/21/12 @ 1336.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/21/12 @ 1318.25. Downside Targets = 1280.00 – 1264.75.
- The September S&P’s followed through perfectly on yesterday morning’s report calling for selling this market above 1350 which would lead to a re-test of 1300 by months end as the market saw one of its largest declines in nearly a month.
- The S&P’s should move back up to 1327 in early trading before falling back lower as it goes after our downside objectives listed above.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 54.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
