KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/13/12 @ 96.72. Downside Targets = 92.38 – 90.71.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 92.38. Downside Targets 75% achieved.
- August Brent Crude dropped sharply lower on both storage supply increases as well as a more bleak outlook for the US and world economy according to the US Fed.
- Brent traded to within 12 ticks of the weekly downside objective before slowing down just above the daily Support Bollinger Band and stopped 1 tick shy of generating a YEARLY OVB.
- Current price action suggests that Brent should continue lower down to the Major-Term support trendline at 84.37.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.38
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.24
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.82
WTI Crude Oil (August):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 82.35. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Downside Targets = 74.45 – 72.96
- August WTI Crude generated new 2012 lows on Wednesday after the recent accumulation zone was violated to the downside and closed at its lowest price since the first week of October 2011.
- With all of the negative economic news and conditions both domestic and abroad, look for WTI to head south to retest the 2011 lows at $74.95 before trading to the initial downside objective of $74.45.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.18
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.27
Natural Gas (July):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range and close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312.
- Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday after making new highs on current move @ 2.679. Upside Target over 135% achieved.
- July Natural Gas once again sank lower on Wednesday after running into heavy resistance within the distribution zone created at the May highs.
- Look for an intra-day short covering rally before tomorrow’s storage report followed by heightened volatility which based off of today’s price action should lead to new weekly lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .180
- Projected Weekly Range: .264
- Projected Monthly Range: .490
METALS
COMEX Gold (August):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 1606.80. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/01/12 @ 1601.50. Upside Targets = 1677.50.
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1606.80. Downside Targets = 1566.70.
- August Gold saw a very volatile session on Wednesday as it dropped more than $30 in early trading before rallying to settle in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
- Gold fell back to last trade near the daily mid-range and should trade lower on Thursday to begin its descent towards the Short Term objective of $1,566.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 79.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.90
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/05/12 @ 1.2512. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 06/06/12 @ 1.2546. Upside Targets = 1.2567 – 1.2652 – 1.2744
- The September Euro FX settled back lower in a highly volatile session on Wednesday following an extension of “Operation Twist” as well as a lowering of expectations out of the Fed on the economy.
- While the Euro has found some recent relief on hopes of additional stimulus from central banks, current downtrodden economic conditions in Europe and a struggling US economy spells bad news for the Euro as it should break through the June lows in the second half of 2012 towards the Intermediate Term downside objective of 1.2097.
- Projected Daily Range: .0154
- Projected Weekly Range: .0310
- Projected Monthly Range: .0575
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/06/12 @ 1287.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/12 @ 1315.50. Upside Target = 1339.00 – 1355.00.
- Inside day generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a top @ with a range violation 1336.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1336.25 or lower.
- The September S&P’s remained virtually unchanged on Wednesday after seeing its share of ups and downs throughout the day amid speculation from the Fed that the US economy may remain stagnant over the next few years.
- Selling signals in this market above 1350 should provide low risk entries and with all of the negative global news and recent poor jobless claims should send this market lower to retest 1300 by months end.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 54.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
