Crude oil takes out $80, targets $74.95

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 06/21/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/13/12 @ 96.72. Downside Targets = 92.38 – 90.71.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 92.38. Downside Targets 75% achieved.
  • August Brent Crude dropped sharply lower on both storage supply increases as well as a more bleak outlook for the US and world economy according to the US Fed.
  • Brent traded to within 12 ticks of the weekly downside objective before slowing down just above the daily Support Bollinger Band and stopped 1 tick shy of generating a YEARLY OVB.
  • Current price action suggests that Brent should continue lower down to the Major-Term support trendline at 84.37.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.38
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.24
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

WTI Crude Oil (August):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/20/12 @ 82.35. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/20/12 @ 81.45. Downside Targets =  74.45 – 72.96
  • August WTI Crude generated new 2012 lows on Wednesday after the recent accumulation zone was violated to the downside and closed at its lowest price since the first week of October 2011.
  • With all of the negative economic news and conditions both domestic and abroad, look for WTI to head south to retest the 2011 lows at $74.95 before trading to the initial downside objective of $74.45.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.18
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

Natural Gas (July):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range and close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday after making new highs on current move @ 2.679. Upside Target over 135% achieved.
  • July Natural Gas once again sank lower on Wednesday after running into heavy resistance within the distribution zone created at the May highs.
  • Look for an intra-day short covering rally before tomorrow’s storage report followed by heightened volatility which based off of today’s price action should lead to new weekly lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .180
  • Projected Weekly Range: .264
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

Page 1 of 2 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus