Oil waiting on housing reports to dictate bias

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 06/18/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNQ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 92.38 – 90.71.
  • VRCB generated on Friday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 98.11. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 98.11 or higher.
  • August Brent Crude traded within a very narrow range again on Friday as volatility eroded ahead of the crucial Greek presidential elections.
  • Based on early polling, Greece should remain within the Euro and thus should give a Short Term boost to Brent prices however long positions are not quite out of the woods yet as this market still faces an uphill climb.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.24
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

CLQ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/14/12 @ 84.30. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/15/12 @ 84.33. Upside Targets =  87.32 – 91.12
  • VRCB generated on Friday.
  • August WTI Crude, like Brent, also traded within a very narrow range on Friday as most risk markets remained on the sidelines due to uncertainty of the Greek election.
  • Look for WTI to stage a modest rally on Monday before this week’s housing reports dictate the market’s price action.
  • A strong showing in the housing sector will push WTI through 87.32 back to 91.12.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.69
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range and close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 2.557. Upside Target over 100% achieved.
  • July Nat Gas settled back lower on Friday after making new 3 week highs following the huge spike higher after Thursday’s lower than expected storage injection.
  • Look for nat gas to work back lower on Monday through Friday’s low of 2.444 and re-approach 2.350.
  • Projected Daily Range: .128
  • Projected Weekly Range: .264
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

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