Oil sees some upside before weekend

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 06/15/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNQ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 92.38 – 90.71.
  • August Brent Crude followed through on the 86% probability of making new lows for the week as published in yesterday’s report before turning back to close at its highest level in 3 days.
  • Look for Brent to trade mildly higher on Friday but within a very narrow range ahead of this weekend’s Greek election.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.24
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/14/12 @ 84.02. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/11/12 @ 81.20. Downside Targets =  77.08 – 76.32
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 84.02 or higher.
  • July WTI Crude moved back higher on Thursday as it faltered just below $84.50 while closing in the upper 85% of the day’s trading range pointing to higher prices on Friday.
  • Like Brent and other “risk” markets, look for WTI to trade higher through $85 to $85.49 before pausing ahead of the weekend.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.22
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range and close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312.
  • Bullish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new 2 week highs @ 2.528.
  • July Nat Gas exploded higher for its largest single day gain in over a year after a smaller than expected storage injection pushing absolute volumes lower.
  • Natural Gas blew out all shorts in the marketplace today with a more than 15% rally and may continue a shade higher back above $2.60 to $2.619.
  • Projected Daily Range: .110
  • Projected Weekly Range: .264
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

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