Oil volatility expected; natural gas continues to fall

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 06/13/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNQ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 92.38 – 90.71.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Tuesday.
  • August Brent Crude opened on its low and traded higher throughout all of Tuesday’s session as it seemed to still be gasping for air having been sold off over $5 during Monday’s volatile trading.
  • Should Tuesday’s low be violated @ 96.25, look for this market to continue lower down to our extended downside targets of 92.12 – 90.36.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.29
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.24
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 81.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/11/12 @ 81.20. Downside Targets =  77.08 – 76.32
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 81.07. Downside Target = 76.32.
  • July WTI Crude made fresh 2012 lows on Tuesday before spending most of the rest of the day session trading sharply higher and closing in the upper 90% of the day’s range and trading within 16 ticks of Friday’s mid-range, a key upside number today.
  • WTI may continue a bit higher in overnight trading but with a day packed full of both US economic indicators and current inventory report, a heavy dose of volatility should be in order.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.62
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range and a close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312.
  • New lows made on current move today @ 2.173. Downside Target over 105% achieved.
  • July Nat Gas was able to put in a moderate advance on Tuesday yet still generated fresh monthly lows below $2.200 before again finding Short Term support at the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • Look for Natural Gas to continue to fall down towards our downside objective of 2.127 before it finds additional support and then eventually knock out the contract lows @ 2.096.
  • Projected Daily Range: .093
  • Projected Weekly Range: .264
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

Comments
comments powered by Disqus