KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/06/12 @ 99.64. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/12 @ 100.64. Upside Targets = 102.65 – 103.67.
- New highs made on current move on Thursday @ 102.45. Targets 95% achieved.
- July Brent Crude trade to within 20 ticks of our projected target on Thursday before turning lower in afternoon trading to close in the lower 1/3 of the day’s trading range.
- After achieving 95% of our weekly objective, look for Brent to turn lower back below $100 towards 95.63 to retest the current lows.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.67
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.06
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.82
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ $84.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/12 @ $85.02. Upside Targets = $86.51 – $87.34
- July WTI Crude generated a bearish OVB on Thursday after trading through our initial upside objective of $86.51 and missing our weekly upside objective by less than 50 cents with close in the lower 40% of the daily mid-range.
- WTI should turn lower on Friday to trade back near the weekly mid-range before finding some Short Term support and working its way out to the side over the next week before Greek elections.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.48
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.29
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.27
NGN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range and close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312. Downside Targets = 2.124 – 1.910
- July Nat Gas fell sharply lower on Thursday as a larger than expected storage report sent specs scrambling to get short as it generated fresh 1 month lows.
- With this recent Short Term rally having failed below $2.50, this market should continue lower to retest the spot contract lows at $1.902 as mentioned in yesterday’s report.
- Projected Daily Range: .120
- Projected Weekly Range: .301
- Projected Monthly Range: .490
METALS
GCQ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/01/12 @ 1574.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/01/12 @ 1601.50. Upside Targets = 1677.50
- August Gold continued to plunge lower on Thursday, losing more than $45 as it stopped just shy of reaching the consolidation zone that has formed over the past month.
- Gold should dip down into the consolidation zone from $1,535.40 – $1,558.70 during Friday’s action before finding any Short Term support.
- Projected Daily Range: 30.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 79.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.90
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/05/12 @ 1.2512. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 06/06/12 @ 1.2546. Upside Targets = 1.2628 – 1.2755
- VRCB generated on Wednesday after making new highs on current move @ 1.2627.
- The June Euro FX traded to within 1 tick of the upside price objective listed at the beginning of this week before running out of buyers and generating a VRCB.
- If Thursday’s low is violated @ 1.2540, look for the Euro to begin its break lower towards the extended Intermediate Term downside objective of 1.2097.
- Projected Daily Range: .0122
- Projected Weekly Range: .0310
- Projected Monthly Range: .0575
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/06/12 @ 1287.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/12 @ 1315.50. Upside Target = 1339.00.
- The June S&P’s traded much higher during early trading on Thursday before Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterated that QE will not be issued…for now, and the market turned sharply lower to close in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range.
- Look for the S&P’s to trade back lower to retest the recent contract lows @ 1262.00 and possibly fill the 2011 close gap left at 1252.50 during the early part of next week.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 54.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
