Oil trends lower while waiting on Greek elections

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 06/08/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/06/12 @ 99.64. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/12 @ 100.64. Upside Targets = 102.65 – 103.67.
  • New highs made on current move on Thursday @ 102.45. Targets 95% achieved.
  • July Brent Crude trade to within 20 ticks of our projected target on Thursday before turning lower in afternoon trading to close in the lower 1/3 of the day’s trading range.
  • After achieving 95% of our weekly objective, look for Brent to turn lower back below $100 towards 95.63 to retest the current lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.67
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.06
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ $84.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/06/12 @ $85.02. Upside Targets =  $86.51 – $87.34
  • July WTI Crude generated a bearish OVB on Thursday after trading through our initial upside objective of $86.51 and missing our weekly upside objective by less than 50 cents with close in the lower 40% of the daily mid-range.
  • WTI should turn lower on Friday to trade back near the weekly mid-range before finding some Short Term support and working its way out to the side over the next week before Greek elections.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.48
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.29
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range and close violation on 06/07/12 @ 2.312. Downside Targets = 2.124 – 1.910
  • July Nat Gas fell sharply lower on Thursday as a larger than expected storage report sent specs scrambling to get short as it generated fresh 1 month lows.
  • With this recent Short Term rally having failed below $2.50, this market should continue lower to retest the spot contract lows at $1.902 as mentioned in yesterday’s report.
  • Projected Daily Range: .120
  • Projected Weekly Range: .301
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

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