Smartphone sales up but waiting on next Apple product

A Walk-ley to remember

Canaccord Genuity Technology Analyst Michael Walkley’s May telecommunications channel checks indicated slightly better sales trends than April levels. However, his global checks indicated June quarter smartphone sales are tracking modestly better than seasonally weaker March quarter sales.

In the U.S. market, checks indicated soft smartphone sales due to aging flagship models from Apple (AAPL) and Samsung somewhat offset by strong demand for but limited supply of new HTC One series smartphones. With the Samsung Galaxy S III smartphones and HTC One Series just starting to ramp volume into the channel combined with Walkley’s expectations for the iPhone 5 to launch in October, he anticipates more H2- weighted 2012 smartphone sales than normal seasonal trends.

RIM and Nokia were both weak globally in May despite solid Lumia 900 sales at AT&T (T). Given the HTC One series and recently launched Samsung Galaxy S III products, Walkley anticipates RIM and Nokia will continue to struggle in the smartphone market. In fact, his checks indicate very high levels of BlackBerry inventory, and he anticipates RIM will need to write down inventory when it reports May quarter results in late June.

Looking at components, Walkley notes that with limited 28nm supply impacting sales of some high-tier smartphones coinciding with sequentially softer iPhone 4S sales, he anticipates more back-half-weighted seasonal smartphone sales in 2012. While he anticipates limited upside for Qualcomm in H2/F12, he maintains his belief Qualcomm is well positioned for strong F13 results.

Qualcomm (QCOM : NASDAQ : US$57.18), Net Change: 1.33, % Change: 2.38%, Volume: 11,581,092

Nokia (NOK : NYSE : US$2.76), Net Change: 0.15, % Change: 5.75%, Volume: 36,029,171

Research In Motion (RIMM : NASDAQ : US$9.99), Net Change: 0.33, % Change: 3.36%, Volume: 16,776,695

About the Author

Canaccord Genuity Inc. is a global investment banking and institutional brokerage firm. Their website is www.canaccordgenuity.com.

For disclosures of any equities mentioned here please see: http://www.canaccordgenuity.com/en/ODD/pages/disclosures.aspx.

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