Crude takes out seven-month low, look for bounce

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 06/05/12

 

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

 

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 106.05. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 108.44 – 102.29 – 98.59.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 95.63. Downside Target 125% achieved.
    • July Brent Crude sank to fresh 15 month lows during early Monday trading before rallying back to end the session just off its highs near $99.
    • Brent saw its entire day’s trading range below the daily Support Bollinger Band but with a strong close and being severely oversold into support, look for Brent to rally back near 102.65 before running into Short Term resistance.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 7.06
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.82

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 89.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target =  89.97 – 84.37
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 81.21. Downside Target over 150% achieved.
    • July WTI Crude generated new 7 ½ month lows on Monday after trading just 20 cents through our Major Term downside objective of 81.41 projected over 2 weeks ago before rallying to close just off the session highs.
    • WTI, like Brent, should see a modest bounce higher back to 86.51 before seeing any resistance.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.29
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

 

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.441. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.441 or higher.
    • July Nat Gas reversed back higher on Monday after finding support once again just above our Short Term objective of 2.307 as it closed in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
    • Once Monday’s high is violated @ 2.440, look for nat gas to move higher throughout the week back near $2.594 before running into initial resistance below the May highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: .115
  • Projected Weekly Range: .301
  • Projected Monthly Range: .490

 

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