In last week’s shortened trading week, July coffee opened at 168.45 and closed the week at 157.50.
On the daily chart, you can see technicals reflect a strong trending market with ADX now at 39. MACD is bearish adding divergence from below the signal line and Stochastics are in deep oversold territory. You can see the range of 175-185 started in the beginning of April. Coffee started coming down from 240 in mid-January, finally broke 220 on Feb. 13 and never retested 220 again. Reading the trade management on the chart, you can see open trade equity of just over $24,000 per contract.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
On the weekly chart, you see the large ongoing liquidation in net shorts and net longs by Producers and Managed Money has helped with coffee’s spiral down. I am hoping you see exactly what to watch for to catch the next ride up. When will that happen? Watch and see.
In the Legacy report you can see that Commercials are net long 6,722 contracts and large specs are net short -5,035 contracts. The more transparent disaggregated repot shows Producers (true commercials) net short -15,128 contracts and Swap Dealers net long 21,850 contracts, with Managed Money net short -13,247 contracts.
Always keep a “third eye” open for a possible change in posture by big money. Have a prosperous trading week.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
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