KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 106.05. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 108.44 – 102.29 – 98.59.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 97.54. Downside Target over 110% achieved.
- July Brent Crude dropped sharply lower again on Friday, closing below the daily Support Bollinger Band after a dismal NFP report indicates deteriorating economic conditions in the U.S.
- Look for Brent to continue a shade lower to retest the 2011 lows @ 92.37 before finding any Major Term support.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.76
- Projected Weekly Range: 7.06
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.82
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 89.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 89.97 – 84.37
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 82.29. Downside Target over 120% achieved.
- July WTI Crude sank lower again on Friday as it again closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band, heading toward our Major Term downside objective of $81.41.
- Look for WTI to trade through the Major Term objective and make a serious run below $80 near $77.69 before finding support above 2011 lows.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.46
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.29
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.27
NGN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
- VRCB generated on Friday making new lows on current move @ 2.313. Downside Target 99% achieved.
- July Nat Gas made new four-week lows on Friday as it traded just six ticks shy of the Short-Term downside objective and close in the lower 10% of the day’s trading range.
- Look for last week’s lows to be violated and for this market to take a shot at the initial Intermediate Term downside objective at $2.127 below the May lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .115
- Projected Weekly Range: .301
- Projected Monthly Range: .490
METALS
GCQ12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/01/12 @ 1574.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/01/12 @ 1601.50. Upside Targets = 1677.50 – 1688.30
- TREND REVERSAL to bullish @ 1601.50.
- August Gold exploded higher on Friday for its best one-day gain in more than a year as the dismal NFP report led investors into the metal as a safe-haven alternative due to uneasiness of confidence in the U.S. markets.
- Gold should see a slight correction on Monday before trading up through Friday’s high @ $1,632.00 and onward to the Intermediate Term objectives of $1,677.50 – $1,688.30.
- Projected Daily Range: 49.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 79.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 105.90
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2324 – 1.2097.
- VRCB-OVB combo generated on Friday after making new lows @ 1.2288. Downside Targets over 250% achieved.
- The June Euro FX saw its first large advance in nearly two weeks after trading just 36 ticks through our Q2 downside objective @ 1.2324.
- The Euro should actually continue lower over the course of the next 2-3 weeks toward our extended target @ 1.2097 until Greek elections determine the direction of that country and the stability of the currency as a whole.
- Projected Daily Range: .0133
- Projected Weekly Range: .0310
- Projected Monthly Range: .0575
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/31/12 @ 1307.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/31/12 @ 1306.00. Downside Targets = 1274.25 – 1258.50.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1273.50. Downside Target 80% achieved.
- The June S&P’s dropped sharply lower on Friday in reaction to the NFP report as it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band setting up for further declines this week.
- Since January, we have been detailing that the S&P’s had a 100% probability of trading 1252.50 before years end and have reiterated this point multiple times throughout the course of the year.
- Look for that projection to be fulfilled this week.
- Projected Daily Range: 27.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 54.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
