Oil looking for support below $80, S&P targets 1252

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 06/04/12

METALS

GCQ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 06/01/12 @ 1574.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 06/01/12 @ 1601.50. Upside Targets = 1677.50 – 1688.30
  • TREND REVERSAL to bullish @ 1601.50.
  • August Gold exploded higher on Friday for its best one-day gain in more than a year as the dismal NFP report led investors into the metal as a safe-haven alternative due to uneasiness of confidence in the U.S. markets.
  • Gold should see a slight correction on Monday before trading up through Friday’s high @ $1,632.00 and onward to the Intermediate Term objectives of $1,677.50 – $1,688.30.
  • Projected Daily Range: 49.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 79.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 105.90

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2324 – 1.2097.
  • VRCB-OVB combo generated on Friday after making new lows @ 1.2288. Downside Targets over 250% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX saw its first large advance in nearly two weeks after trading just 36 ticks through our Q2 downside objective @ 1.2324.
  • The Euro should actually continue lower over the course of the next 2-3 weeks toward our extended target @ 1.2097 until Greek elections determine the direction of that country and the stability of the currency as a whole.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0133
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0310
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0575

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/31/12 @ 1307.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/31/12 @ 1306.00. Downside Targets = 1274.25 – 1258.50.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 1273.50. Downside Target 80% achieved.
  • The June S&P’s dropped sharply lower on Friday in reaction to the NFP report as it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band setting up for further declines this week.
  • Since January, we have been detailing that the S&P’s had a 100% probability of trading 1252.50 before years end and have reiterated this point multiple times throughout the course of the year.
  • Look for that projection to be fulfilled this week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 27.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 54.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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