Oil sees no support until $81.41, natural gas may see new lows

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 06/01/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 106.05. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 108.44 – 102.29 – 98.59.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 101.27. Downside Target 70% achieved.
  • July Brent Crude sank lower again on Friday as it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band and approaches the $100 threshold before Friday’s NFP report.
  • Current market action has been driven lower with the London open and then following through during US market hours as the stops below the 2011 summer lows @ 98.74 should be ran before this market finds a Intermediate Term bottom.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.92
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 89.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97 – 84.37
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 85.86. Downside Targets over 80% achieved.
  • July WTI Crude sank lower on Thursday as it nears the October 2011 mid-range @ 84.80 before receiving a slight bounce off the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • WTI will most likely break lower again on Friday as we expect this market to continue lower towards our Major-Term support level @ 81.41.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.68
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 2.377. Downside Targets over 82% achieved.
  • July Nat Gas remained virtually unchanged on Thursday as the supply report failed to attract enough buyers to push prices above the Wednesday highs and eventually dropped over 5 cents in the last 30 minutes of trading.
  • Once Thursday’s low is violated @ 2.377, this market could accelerate lower to the Short Term downside target of 2.307 followed by the initial Intermediate Term objective of 2.127. Now that there has been a range violation @ 2.387 on an intermediate basis stay tuned next week because the projected downside targets are lower than the 04/20/12 low @ 1.901.
  • Projected Daily Range: .130
  • Projected Weekly Range: .289
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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