KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 106.05. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 108.44 – 102.29 – 98.59.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 101.27. Downside Target 70% achieved.
- July Brent Crude sank lower again on Friday as it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band and approaches the $100 threshold before Friday’s NFP report.
- Current market action has been driven lower with the London open and then following through during US market hours as the stops below the 2011 summer lows @ 98.74 should be ran before this market finds a Intermediate Term bottom.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.92
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/30/12 @ 89.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97 – 84.37
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 85.86. Downside Targets over 80% achieved.
- July WTI Crude sank lower on Thursday as it nears the October 2011 mid-range @ 84.80 before receiving a slight bounce off the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- WTI will most likely break lower again on Friday as we expect this market to continue lower towards our Major-Term support level @ 81.41.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.68
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGN12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 2.377. Downside Targets over 82% achieved.
- July Nat Gas remained virtually unchanged on Thursday as the supply report failed to attract enough buyers to push prices above the Wednesday highs and eventually dropped over 5 cents in the last 30 minutes of trading.
- Once Thursday’s low is violated @ 2.377, this market could accelerate lower to the Short Term downside target of 2.307 followed by the initial Intermediate Term objective of 2.127. Now that there has been a range violation @ 2.387 on an intermediate basis stay tuned next week because the projected downside targets are lower than the 04/20/12 low @ 1.901.
- Projected Daily Range: .130
- Projected Weekly Range: .289
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCQ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10 – 1496.40
- Possible Standard confirmation of a bottom @ 1574.70. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1574.70 or higher.
- August Gold ended the day flat on Thursday as it endured a very choppy trading session while bouncing back and forth between $1,575 and $1,550.
- Gold should head a bit lower to end the week and trade through $1,550 on Friday while heading toward the Intermediate Term downside target of $1,528.10 once again. If this market continues to trade through $1,500 it should continue towards our major-term downside target at $1,427.10 we mentioned a couple of weeks ago.
- Projected Daily Range: 32.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2324 – 1.2097.
- VRCB generated on Thursday making new contract lows @ 1.2337. Downside Target over 240% achieved.
- The June Euro FX moved lower again on Thursday, trading to within 14 ticks of our projected Q2 low @ 1.2324 while generating a daily “blast” signal.
- If Thursday’s high is violated @ 1.2429, the euro may make a Short Term move higher, likely to be short-lived, before continuing lower to the Intermediate Term downside target of 1.2097.
- Projected Daily Range: .0129
- Projected Weekly Range: .0215
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/31/12 @ 1307.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/31/12 @ 1306.00. Downside Targets = 1274.25 – 1258.50.
- The June S&P’s moved lower again on Thursday in a very erratic day of trading as the market moved below 1300 once again before catching a mid-day rally to new session highs, then falling back below the daily mid-range.
- The S&P’s should continue lower to fulfill the weekly downside target set at 1289.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
