Oil bounce short-lived, gold support in question

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 05/30/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday.
  • June Gold was able to move higher in early trading on Tuesday, although most of the upside was in a shortened Monday session, but broke sharply lower on Tuesday to close below $1,550/oz.
  • If/when Tuesday’s low is violated at $1,545.70, look for gold to first challenge the lows last week at $1,532.80 before taking a run at the December 2011 low at $1,523.90 and current 2012 lows at $1,526.70 before challenging our Q2 downside objective of $1,517.10.
  • A close below $1,500.00 brings our long term downside target in to play at $1,427.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: 29.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623 – 1.2324.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on current move @ 1.2462. Downside Target over 220% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX continued its slide lower on Tuesday as it closed below 1.25 for the first time since July 2010.
  • As stated for the past month now, the Euro should continue lower with no signs of optimism coming from overseas as it heads towards our Q2 objective of 1.2324.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0126
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0215
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 05/29/12 @ 1333.50. Upside Target = 1339.00 – 1345.00.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday.
  • The June S&P’s closed at their highest level in almost two weeks on Tuesday as a late session rally brought the market off its lows to close just off the day’s highs.
  • The market was able to rally on not great economic reports but the fact remains that a souring economic climate in Europe and housing reports showing further market degradation does not bode well for prices heading into mid-June.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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