KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 107.26. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- Close < Low Of High Bar generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 106.05.
- July Brent Crude followed through on last night’s report calling for lower prices on Tuesday as the market narrowly avoiding breaking the $106 handle yet still closed below Monday’s low and below the daily mid-range.
- If Brent breaks through and makes new weekly lows this market could run through the 2012 lows down to 102.29.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.45
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/29/12 @ 91.73. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a with a range violation @ 91.73 or lower.
- July WTI Crude’s “short lived bounce” was just as expected…very short lived, as it rallied above 92.00 for the first time in a week before losing all gains and closing below the previous day’s close and the daily mid-range.
- If Tuesday’s low is violated @ 90.25, look for this market to break to new 2012 lows toward the extended Intermediate Term downside objective of 87.98.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGN12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 2.466. Targets 70% achieved.
- July Nat Gas continued lower to begin the holiday shortened week as it achieved our first downside objective @ 2.492 and settling at its lowest level in nearly three weeks.
- If/when natural gas breaks through 2.458 it should accelerate lower toward our final short-term objective @ 2.307 and retest the May lows @ 2.236.
- Projected Daily Range: .136
- Projected Weekly Range: .289
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10.
- Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday.
- June Gold was able to move higher in early trading on Tuesday, although most of the upside was in a shortened Monday session, but broke sharply lower on Tuesday to close below $1,550/oz.
- If/when Tuesday’s low is violated at $1,545.70, look for gold to first challenge the lows last week at $1,532.80 before taking a run at the December 2011 low at $1,523.90 and current 2012 lows at $1,526.70 before challenging our Q2 downside objective of $1,517.10.
- A close below $1,500.00 brings our long term downside target in to play at $1,427.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 29.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623 – 1.2324.
- Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on current move @ 1.2462. Downside Target over 220% achieved.
- The June Euro FX continued its slide lower on Tuesday as it closed below 1.25 for the first time since July 2010.
- As stated for the past month now, the Euro should continue lower with no signs of optimism coming from overseas as it heads towards our Q2 objective of 1.2324.
- Projected Daily Range: .0126
- Projected Weekly Range: .0215
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 05/29/12 @ 1333.50. Upside Target = 1339.00 – 1345.00.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday.
- The June S&P’s closed at their highest level in almost two weeks on Tuesday as a late session rally brought the market off its lows to close just off the day’s highs.
- The market was able to rally on not great economic reports but the fact remains that a souring economic climate in Europe and housing reports showing further market degradation does not bode well for prices heading into mid-June.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
