Oil bounce short-lived, gold support in question

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 05/30/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 107.26. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • Close < Low Of High Bar generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 106.05.
  • July Brent Crude followed through on last night’s report calling for lower prices on Tuesday as the market narrowly avoiding breaking the $106 handle yet still closed below Monday’s low and below the daily mid-range.
  • If Brent breaks through and makes new weekly lows this market could run through the 2012 lows down to 102.29.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.45
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/29/12 @ 91.73. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a with a range violation @ 91.73 or lower.
  • July WTI Crude’s “short lived bounce” was just as expected…very short lived, as it rallied above 92.00 for the first time in a week before losing all gains and closing below the previous day’s close and the daily mid-range.
  • If Tuesday’s low is violated @ 90.25, look for this market to break to new 2012 lows toward the extended Intermediate Term downside objective of 87.98.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 2.466. Targets 70% achieved.
  • July Nat Gas continued lower to begin the holiday shortened week as it achieved our first downside objective @ 2.492 and settling at its lowest level in nearly three weeks.
  • If/when natural gas breaks through 2.458 it should accelerate lower toward our final short-term objective @ 2.307 and retest the May lows @ 2.236.
  • Projected Daily Range: .136
  • Projected Weekly Range: .289
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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