S&Ps threaten to give up yearly gains, oil bounce likely short-lived

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 05/29/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 107.26. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 107.26 or higher.
  • July Brent Crude was able to move slightly higher on Monday before settling in the lower 25% of the daily trading range after failing to break through last Wednesday’s high.
  • Brent’s weak close on Monday could spell for a drop lower during more active trading on Tuesday as the market may take another crack at $105.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.07
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • DOUBLE VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 91.73. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 91.73 or higher.
  • July WTI Crude generated its second consecutive inside day on Friday, mostly because of thin trading on a holiday weekend, and could see a modest bounce to begin the new week.
  • This bounce will more than likely be short-lived because of all the trends being bearish and the market may drop down to the weekly objective of $87.98.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.76
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 2.582.
  • July Nat Gas made new lows for the week last Friday, which points toward a lower Monday and a lower week overall.
  • Look for natural gas to trade down to $2.429 in early week trading before finding any kind of Short Term support.
  • Projected Daily Range: .134
  • Projected Weekly Range: .289
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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