KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 107.26. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 107.26 or higher.
- July Brent Crude was able to move slightly higher on Monday before settling in the lower 25% of the daily trading range after failing to break through last Wednesday’s high.
- Brent’s weak close on Monday could spell for a drop lower during more active trading on Tuesday as the market may take another crack at $105.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.07
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- DOUBLE VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 91.73. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 91.73 or higher.
- July WTI Crude generated its second consecutive inside day on Friday, mostly because of thin trading on a holiday weekend, and could see a modest bounce to begin the new week.
- This bounce will more than likely be short-lived because of all the trends being bearish and the market may drop down to the weekly objective of $87.98.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.76
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGN12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.651. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/25/12 @ 2.627. Downside Targets = 2.492 – 2.307.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 2.582.
- July Nat Gas made new lows for the week last Friday, which points toward a lower Monday and a lower week overall.
- Look for natural gas to trade down to $2.429 in early week trading before finding any kind of Short Term support.
- Projected Daily Range: .134
- Projected Weekly Range: .289
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10.
- Possible confirmation of bottom with a range violation @ 1577.80. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1577.80 or higher.
- June Gold moved higher on Friday as it was able to close above Wednesday’s high and sets up for a Short Term move higher as it tries to bust through the $1,600 ceiling.
- If June Gold fails to break the last top at $1,599, this market could make another serious drop below $1,500 toward the Major-Term downside target at $1,427.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623 – 1.2324.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1.2496. Downside targets over 210% achieved.
- The June Euro FX generated fresh contract and 2012 lows on Friday as the short-term pop at the beginning of the week was quickly wiped away.
- The Euro shows no signs of slowing down on the way to our Q2 downside objective of 1.2324 as problems with Spain and Greece continue to mount heading into the new Greek gov’t election at the beginning of June.
- Projected Daily Range: .0108
- Projected Weekly Range: .0215
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1345.00 – 1318.50 – 1293.25.
- Standard confirmation of a bottom @ 1326.75. Possible Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
- The June S&P’s generated bullish divergent price action on Friday after making new highs for the week yet closing just off the day’s low, pointing the daily close indicator for Monday lower.
- Should the S&P’s close below Friday’s low at 1312.00 in early trading this week, this market could continue its drop lower to go back and fill the YEARLY CLOSE GAP that remains at 1252.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
