S&Ps threaten to give up yearly gains, oil bounce likely short-lived

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 05/29/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10.
  • Possible confirmation of bottom with a range violation @ 1577.80. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1577.80 or higher.
  • June Gold moved higher on Friday as it was able to close above Wednesday’s high and sets up for a Short Term move higher as it tries to bust through the $1,600 ceiling.
  • If June Gold fails to break the last top at $1,599, this market could make another serious drop below $1,500 toward the Major-Term downside target at $1,427.
  • Projected Daily Range: 23.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623 – 1.2324.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 1.2496. Downside targets over 210% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX generated fresh contract and 2012 lows on Friday as the short-term pop at the beginning of the week was quickly wiped away.
  • The Euro shows no signs of slowing down on the way to our Q2 downside objective of 1.2324 as problems with Spain and Greece continue to mount heading into the new Greek gov’t election at the beginning of June.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0108
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0215
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/25/12 @ 1326.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1345.00 – 1318.50 – 1293.25.
  • Standard confirmation of a bottom @ 1326.75. Possible Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
  • The June S&P’s generated bullish divergent price action on Friday after making new highs for the week yet closing just off the day’s low, pointing the daily close indicator for Monday lower.
  • Should the S&P’s close below Friday’s low at 1312.00 in early trading this week, this market could continue its drop lower to go back and fill the YEARLY CLOSE GAP that remains at 1252.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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