Last week June Gold opened at $1,590.20 and closed the week at $1,568.20 before the long U.S. holiday weekend. May has been a little rough on gold bulls as June Gold opened May at $1,666.10. Not a bad month for gold bears.
Technicals on the daily chart below may be signaling a potential long set-up soon. We see ADX dropping, now at 36. This is still a strong down-trending market, but the trend is weakening. DI+ could be crossing up over DI- over the next few days. MACD is just crossing up over the signal line with no divergence and Stochastics did exit oversold territory. They are midrange and just starting to head up again.
Looking at the weekly chart, the first thing you will notice is $1,550. Gold dipped below 1,550 the last week of September 2011, the last week of December 2011 and these past two weeks, with no close below this level.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
In the Disaggregated COT this past week we see Producers adding slightly to their net short positions at -135,680 contracts. Swap Dealers dropped their net shorts from the previous week to the point that they are now slightly net long at 82 contracts and Managed Money had a slight drop of their net longs now at 74,645 contracts.
If you invest or trade in GLD and follow its hard gold holdings, you know that late summer, early fall of 2011 GLD had gold holdings of 1,290.76 tonnes. Current holding of the precious metal is at 1,270.26 tonnes. It got rid of 20.5 tonnes of gold from its holdings.
Keep a very sharp eye on Swap Dealer positioning. This will help you catch the next major ride up.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
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