Oil, gold at risk during thin markets before holiday

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 05/25/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 105.03. Downside Target over 225% achieved.
  • July Brent Crude exhibited bearish divergent price action on Thursday after setting new 2012 lows before closing back above the daily mid-range and previous sessions close.
  • Look for Brent to have an initial setback in early trading Friday before challenging the Wednesday highs @ 108.16.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.19
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 91.73. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 91.73 or higher.
  • July WTI Crude was able to find a little support just below $90 on Thursday before settling back just a single tick below the daily mid-range.
  • WTI may just be showing some signs of thin trading going into a long holiday weekend but there may be a little more acceleration lower as this market has the potential to continue lower down to the $84 range.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.08
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGN12: ROLL

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/24/12 @ 2.807. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861.
  • VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.651. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.651 or lower.
  • July Nat Gas retreated lower for most of the day on Thursday after the storage report showed a large injection and pushed prices near the lows of the week.
  • If Thursday’s low is violated @ 2.691, look for this week’s low to be violated early next week and continue lower down to 2.492. Our previous upside target @ 2.756 was only violated by 3 ticks.
  • Projected Daily Range: .129
  • Projected Weekly Range: .289
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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