KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 105.03. Downside Target over 225% achieved.
- July Brent Crude exhibited bearish divergent price action on Thursday after setting new 2012 lows before closing back above the daily mid-range and previous sessions close.
- Look for Brent to have an initial setback in early trading Friday before challenging the Wednesday highs @ 108.16.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.19
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- Inside VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 91.73. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 91.73 or higher.
- July WTI Crude was able to find a little support just below $90 on Thursday before settling back just a single tick below the daily mid-range.
- WTI may just be showing some signs of thin trading going into a long holiday weekend but there may be a little more acceleration lower as this market has the potential to continue lower down to the $84 range.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGN12: ROLL
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/24/12 @ 2.807. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861.
- VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.651. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.651 or lower.
- July Nat Gas retreated lower for most of the day on Thursday after the storage report showed a large injection and pushed prices near the lows of the week.
- If Thursday’s low is violated @ 2.691, look for this week’s low to be violated early next week and continue lower down to 2.492. Our previous upside target @ 2.756 was only violated by 3 ticks.
- Projected Daily Range: .129
- Projected Weekly Range: .289
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10.
- Possible confirmation of a TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 1577.80. Possible confirmation of a TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1577.80 or higher.
- June Gold gave back most of its earlier gains on Thursday after meeting heavy resistance just north of $1,575 as investors are still uneasy holding onto positions in the “risk” markets.
- Look for gold and the other risk markets to trade in relatively thin range as most traders head out for the long weekend but should drop the market back below $1,550 going into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 31.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623 – 1.2324.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1.2561. Downside Target over 220% achieved.
- The June Euro FX continued its decline on Thursday as it made fresh new 2012 lows as well as new lows dating back to early July 2010 while approaching the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- The Euro should continue to fall as investors’ confidence will continue to deteriorate until after the June 17th Greece elections.
- Projected Daily Range: .0136
- Projected Weekly Range: .0215
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1345.00 – 1318.50 – 1293.25.
- VRCB / Close > High Of Low Bar generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1326.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
- The June S&P’s moved back near 1300 on Thursday before finding some support near Wednesday’s mid-range and rallied to close at its highest level in over a week.
- Like gold, the S&P’s should be a relatively thin trade on Friday heading into the weekend but it may be able to advance to new highs for the week near the weekly upside target of 1334.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
