KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 105.39. Downside Target over 220% achieved.
- July Brent Crude was not able to hold last week’s low as it made new 2012 lows and closed at its lowest price in over 6 months.
- With European debt worries and the fate of Greece in the Eurozone still weighing down the broad risk markets, it is hard to conclude that Brent will be able to find its bottom until after the June 17th Greek elections.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.34
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- New contract lows made on Thursday @ 89.28. Intermediate Downside Target over 100% achieved.
- July WTI Crude broke through the $90 threshold on Wednesday as it stopped just a few ticks shy of breaking the November lows @ 89.17 before rallying after the pit-session up near the day’s mid-range.
- WTI has now lost more than $17 in the past three weeks and although the Intermediate Term downside objective has now been achieved, with all current trends still very bearish, this market may continue lower towards the major-term support @ 81.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/22/12 @ 2.588. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
- June Nat Gas again shook off overnight short positions and spent all day moving higher before stalling just below $2.75 and last week’s highs.
- Although the market has seen some pretty strong resistance at current levels, the weekly close indicator still suggest that we should trade through last week’s high and go after not only the Q2 upside target of 2.861 but also the Intermediate Term upside target @ $3.039.
- Projected Daily Range: .145
- Projected Weekly Range: .289
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10.
- June Gold dropped more than $40 lower from the Tuesday close on Wednesday before finding some support at the Intermediate Term objective $1528.10 and trading back above $1555.00 by the time the market last traded.
- With the market seeming to reject gold as a “safe-haven” as it has during previous times of market trouble, this market will need to see a consolidation period at the lows in order to put in a proper bottom or risk dropping lower to fresh contract lows.
- Projected Daily Range: 27.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623 – 1.2324.
- The June Euro FX dropped sharply lower again on Wednesday as it made new 22 month lows amid concerns that Greece may soon make an exit from the Eurozone.
- With all of the uncertainty amid multiple European nation’s debt issues and turmoil within Greece, the next month will most likely produce fireworks and periods of high volatility.
- If Greece does leave the Eurozone, look for the lows made in 2010 @ 1.1874 to be violated and this market trade lower down to 1.1500.
- Projected Daily Range: .0134
- Projected Weekly Range: .0215
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1345.00 – 1318.50 – 1293.25.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1326.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
- The June S&P’s saw a sharp decline in not only overnight trading but for most of the morning session before rallying very strongly to end the day virtually flat but near the highs of the day.
- The market seemed to get a little relief that France and Italian leaders were open to all possibilities for stimulating economic production but with headlines seeming to dominate the trade, wide swings in market price action should be expected but the market should head lower down to 1252.50 to fulfill trading at the 2011 closing price.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
