Bearish oil may not find support until $81

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 05/24/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/23/12 @ 1560.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/23/12 @ 1548.40. Downside Targets 1525.50 – 1517.10.
  • June Gold dropped more than $40 lower from the Tuesday close on Wednesday before finding some support at the Intermediate Term objective $1528.10 and trading back above $1555.00 by the time the market last traded.
  • With the market seeming to reject gold as a “safe-haven” as it has during previous times of market trouble, this market will need to see a consolidation period at the lows in order to put in a proper bottom or risk dropping lower to fresh contract lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: 27.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623 – 1.2324.
  • The June Euro FX dropped sharply lower again on Wednesday as it made new 22 month lows amid concerns that Greece may soon make an exit from the Eurozone.
  • With all of the uncertainty amid multiple European nation’s debt issues and turmoil within Greece, the next month will most likely produce fireworks and periods of high volatility.
  • If Greece does leave the Eurozone, look for the lows made in 2010 @ 1.1874 to be violated and this market trade lower down to 1.1500.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0134
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0215
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1345.00 – 1318.50 – 1293.25.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1326.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1326.75 or higher.
  • The June S&P’s saw a sharp decline in not only overnight trading but for most of the morning session before rallying very strongly to end the day virtually flat but near the highs of the day.
  • The market seemed to get a little relief that France and Italian leaders were open to all possibilities for stimulating economic production but with headlines seeming to dominate the trade, wide swings in market price action should be expected but the market should head lower down to 1252.50 to fulfill trading at the 2011 closing price.
  • Projected Daily Range: 24.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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