Bearish oil may not find support until $81

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 05/24/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 105.39. Downside Target over 220% achieved.
  • July Brent Crude was not able to hold last week’s low as it made new 2012 lows and closed at its lowest price in over 6 months.
  • With European debt worries and the fate of Greece in the Eurozone still weighing down the broad risk markets, it is hard to conclude that Brent will be able to find its bottom until after the June 17th Greek elections.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.34
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • New contract lows made on Thursday @ 89.28. Intermediate Downside Target over 100% achieved.
  • July WTI Crude broke through the $90 threshold on Wednesday as it stopped just a few ticks shy of breaking the November lows @ 89.17 before rallying after the pit-session up near the day’s mid-range.
  • WTI has now lost more than $17 in the past three weeks and although the Intermediate Term downside objective has now been achieved, with all current trends still very bearish, this market may continue lower towards the major-term support @ 81.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/22/12 @ 2.588. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
  • June Nat Gas again shook off overnight short positions and spent all day moving higher before stalling just below $2.75 and last week’s highs.
  • Although the market has seen some pretty strong resistance at current levels, the weekly close indicator still suggest that we should trade through last week’s high and go after not only the Q2 upside target of 2.861 but also the Intermediate Term upside target @ $3.039.
  • Projected Daily Range: .145
  • Projected Weekly Range: .289
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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