KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/18/12 @ 1579.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 05/18/12 @ 1591.90. Upside Targets 1624.10 – 1648.30.
- Close < Low Of High Bar generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1560.90. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1560.90 or lower.
- June Gold was able to find some initial support above $1,560 as we suggested in the Tuesday report but sank lower after the pit session closed and is now looking to make another move lower to retest the recent 2012 lows at $1,526.70.
- If Gold traders initiate fresh selling and drop this market to new contract lows, $1,500/oz. may not hold and this market could be faced to trade to our Major-Term downside objective of $1,427.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623.
- The June Euro FX gave back everything it had gained on Monday during the Tuesday trading session as the short-covering rally did not last long and sellers dropped this market hard above 1.2800.
- Should the Euro break through to new 2012 lows below 1.2626, watch out below as the market should continue to decline all the way down to our Q2 objective of 1.2324.
- Projected Daily Range: .0137
- Projected Weekly Range: .0215
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1345.00 – 1318.50 – 1293.25.
- The June S&P’s settled back below the daily mid-range on Tuesday as the intra-day rally fizzled going into the close as the market closed with a loss for the day.
- We discussed with some recipients of the report on Monday that after last week we were expecting a short retracement to 1323.00 – 1339.00 with yesterday’s high @ 1326.50. Yesterday’s close indicator would suggest that if Tuesday’s low is violated @ 1307.50 and the market press lower back down through 1300.00, then it is on its way to a least 1252.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 109.44. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 109.44 or higher.
- July Brent Crude saw the setback discussed in the yesterday’s report but continued to make new lows in the second half of trading on Tuesday which would point the market direction lower for Wednesday trading.
- Brent may be finding an area of support and begin to go into a consolidation phase as long if last week’s low is not violated @ 106.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.95
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- July WTI Crude did not follow through on Monday’s bullish OVB as the market sank lower in late trading, pointing the close indicator lower for Wednesday.
- WTI seems to have experience a mild short-covering rally on Monday and you should look for new contract lows to be made on Wednesday as the market goes after the Intermediate Term downside objective of 89.97.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/22/12 @ 2.588. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
- Standard confirmation of a top @ 2.588. Possible Conservative confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.588 or lower.
- June Nat Gas rallied back from its overnight losses during the Tuesday pit session before running into some pretty strong resistance above $2.70 as suggested in the Monday evening report.
- Even though there is defined Short Term resistance above $2.70, unless Natural Gas can break to new weekly lows in the second half of the week, this market may continue on higher towards the Q2 projected high of 2.861.
- Projected Daily Range: .152
- Projected Weekly Range: .289
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
