Oil looks for short-covering rally to begin week

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 05/21/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNN12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 106.40. Downside Target over 210% achieved.
  • July Brent Crude dropped lower on Friday as it created new 2012 lows in a tight trading range as it found some Short Term support at the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • Look for Brent to rebound coming into the new week after the $22 decline over the last couple of months as it should challenge the $110.49 area by mid-week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.51
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLN12: ROLL

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • New contract lows made on current move Friday @ 91.25. Downside Target over 250% achieved.
  • June WTI Crude drudged lower on Friday as it closed below $92 for the first time in more than six months as it closes in on our downside Intermediate Term objective of 89.97.
  • WTI should ride the coattails of Brent and the other “risk” markets higher to begin the week as there is bound to be a massive short-covering rally unfold to begin the new week and take this market back just shy of $95.00 to $94.93.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.03
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/16/12 @ 2.532. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 2.759. Upside Target 100% achieved.
  • June Nat Gas was able to generate new 2 ½ month highs on Friday after trading a mere 3 ticks through the upside price objective and closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • Nat gas is now only a dime away from our posted Q2 upside target @ 2.861 and although the rally may not quite get there on this current upward thrust, it should have no problem making it there within the next two weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: .157
  • Projected Weekly Range: .289
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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