KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNN12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 106.40. Downside Target over 210% achieved.
- July Brent Crude dropped lower on Friday as it created new 2012 lows in a tight trading range as it found some Short Term support at the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Look for Brent to rebound coming into the new week after the $22 decline over the last couple of months as it should challenge the $110.49 area by mid-week.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.51
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.94
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLN12: ROLL
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- New contract lows made on current move Friday @ 91.25. Downside Target over 250% achieved.
- June WTI Crude drudged lower on Friday as it closed below $92 for the first time in more than six months as it closes in on our downside Intermediate Term objective of 89.97.
- WTI should ride the coattails of Brent and the other “risk” markets higher to begin the week as there is bound to be a massive short-covering rally unfold to begin the new week and take this market back just shy of $95.00 to $94.93.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.03
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/16/12 @ 2.532. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 2.759. Upside Target 100% achieved.
- June Nat Gas was able to generate new 2 ½ month highs on Friday after trading a mere 3 ticks through the upside price objective and closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Nat gas is now only a dime away from our posted Q2 upside target @ 2.861 and although the rally may not quite get there on this current upward thrust, it should have no problem making it there within the next two weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .157
- Projected Weekly Range: .289
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/18/12 @ 1579.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 05/18/12 @ 1591.90. Upside Targets 1624.10 – 1648.30.
- Upside Target already over 150% achieved.
- June Gold continued to rise on Friday as it has now moved more than $70 in two days since hitting our downside target of $1,528.10 and is poised to continue to move higher to begin the week back through $1,600.
- Gold should continue to see a solid move up to the initial upside target @ 1624.10 before running into any serious Short Term resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: 32.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 62.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2805 – 1.2623.
- Bullish OVB generated on Friday after making new lows on current move @ 1.2644.
- The June Euro FX traded to within 21 ticks of the extended downside target of 1.2623 on Friday before making a sharp move higher intraday and posted its first daily advance in three weeks.
- The Euro may move higher back close to 1.2955 before sellers reappear and continue to hammer this market to new 2012 lows below 1.2626.
- Projected Daily Range: .0105
- Projected Weekly Range: .0215
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1345.00 – 1318.50 – 1293.25.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1289.75. Downside Target 235% achieved.
- The June S&P’s sank again on Friday as they logged their worst week of 2012 after the FB IPO did not spark much bullish interest in the market as a whole and it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the 2nd straight day.
- The S&P’s should see a modest bounce to begin the week but may run into some trouble near 1323.50 where sellers dropped the market hard last week.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
