KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 106.58. Downside Target over 200% achieved.
- July Brent Crude generated new 2012 lows on Thursday as it filled the yearly close gap left in the market @ 107.38 before finding some relief at the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- With the Intermediate Term objective completed @ 108.44 and the 100% probability of the 2011 close being trade coming to fruition @ 107.38, look for Brent to put in at least an Short Term bottom soon and make a strong rally back above $110 to $112.71.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.55
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- Inside day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 94.17. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 94.17 or higher.
- June WTI Crude dropped lower on Thursday despite trading within the range of the previous day as the market tries to find some Short Term support after a $15 drop over the last three weeks.
- A bounce in WTI may only be short lived as Saudi production levels are expected to increase and many specs are looking to continue to drive the market lower until it reaches the Intermediate Term objective of 89.97.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/16/12 @ 2.532. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 2.676. Upside Target 80% achieved.
- June Nat Gas erased its earlier losses after the storage report was released and it rallied back to end the session above its daily mid-range.
- Nat gas continues its run higher, now 19 days from the bottom without a single sell signal and looks to go after our Q2 objective of 2.861 after trading to within 4 cents of the downside target @ 1.860.
- Projected Daily Range: .152
- Projected Weekly Range: .240
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1599.10 – 1528.10.
- Bullish Extended Range Vertical Bar / Close > High Of Low Bar generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of bottom range violation @ 1579.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1579.90 or higher.
- June Gold exploded $50 higher on Thursday after the Intermediate Term objective was hit @ 1528.10 on Wednesday and looks to go after the initial upside target listed in yesterday’s report @ 1603.40.
- Investors flocked back into gold after finding key support at the spot December lows, poor economic data as well as a Spain downgrade so this market could very easily tack on another $50 from current prices to $1624.70 before finding additional resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: 30.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top with a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805 – 1.2623.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1.2668. Downside Target over 180% achieved.
- The June Euro FX declined again on Thursday as it dropped for the 14th consecutive day but closed above the daily mid-range and back within the Bollinger Bands.
- The Euro should still be able to fall lower toward our extended Short Term downside target of 1.2623 on its way to new 2012 lows below 1.2626.
- Projected Daily Range: .0103
- Projected Weekly Range: .0201
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00 – 1318.50.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1300.50. Downside Target over 225% achieved.
- The June S&P’s saw a sharp break lower towards the end of trading on Thursday before stopping just shy of cracking the 1300 threshold yet closing below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- The S&P’s were able to break through 1300 in the first few minutes of overnight trading for Friday and may be able to have a short-covering rally on the heels of Facebook’s IPO that has been so anticipated.
- However, we have mentioned several times lately there is a 100% probability we trade 1252.50 in 2012.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
