Oil searching for support after $15 drop

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 05/18/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 106.58. Downside Target over 200% achieved.
  • July Brent Crude generated new 2012 lows on Thursday as it filled the yearly close gap left in the market @ 107.38 before finding some relief at the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • With the Intermediate Term objective completed @ 108.44 and the 100% probability of the 2011 close being trade coming to fruition @ 107.38, look for Brent to put in at least an Short Term bottom soon and make a strong rally back above $110 to $112.71.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.55
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • Inside day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 94.17. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 94.17 or higher.
  • June WTI Crude dropped lower on Thursday despite trading within the range of the previous day as the market tries to find some Short Term support after a $15 drop over the last three weeks.
  • A bounce in WTI may only be short lived as Saudi production levels are expected to increase and many specs are looking to continue to drive the market lower until it reaches the Intermediate Term objective of 89.97.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/16/12 @ 2.532. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 2.676. Upside Target 80% achieved.
  • June Nat Gas erased its earlier losses after the storage report was released and it rallied back to end the session above its daily mid-range.
  • Nat gas continues its run higher, now 19 days from the bottom without a single sell signal and looks to go after our Q2 objective of 2.861 after trading to within 4 cents of the downside target @ 1.860.
  • Projected Daily Range: .152
  • Projected Weekly Range: .240
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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